LET’S TANGO!

Friday, November 30, 2018 - Insight after the bell from Investopedia's Editor in Chief

The Market Sum | INVESTOPEDIA Insight after the bell By Caleb Silver, Editor in Chief Friday's Headlines 1. Let's Tango! 2. Chart of the Day: Big Scandals and Big Losses for Big Banks Markets Close Dow 25,538.46 +0.82% S&P 2,760.16 +0.79% Nasdaq 7,330.54 +0.79% VIX 18.07 -3.83% INV Anxiety Index 100.41 0.00% US 10-Yr Yield 3.013% -0.72%     LET'S TANGO! November comes to a close with U.S. markets closing higher for the day, the week and the month. It didn't seem like it was going to play out that way, which is why predicting the markets is a fool's game.   Here's the tally: All eyes are on the Rio de la Plata - Buenos Aires, that is - for the G20 meetings this weekend. The headline event will be the Trump/Xi meeting wherein the two leaders of the world's biggest economies will try to find ways to compromise to head off the escalating trade war.   Here is a good primer on what to expect this weekend.   It's important to note that the trade war is not just a stand-off between the U.S. and China. Given their outsized roles in the global economy, it impacts nearly every developed country that trades with them. This chart from Bloomberg shows how big both of them are, and how dramatic China's growth has been over the last 15 years as the country has caught up to the United States. Why it Matters: Of all the things weighing on global markets and multinational corporations right now, the trade war may be the heaviest. This is not to say that President Trump was wrong to pick this fight in the first place. When it comes to trade, the playing field with China is not level and that has developed over decades and through several administrations in Washington and Beijing.   Trump has proven that multilateral trade deals can be reworked and improved, as in the case of the USCMA (formerly NAFTA). That deal was officially signed today and paves the way for even more trade between the North American countries.   The situation with China is not as clear cut, but the downside to an escalating trade war is very steep. The Fed is now worrying about it, companies like Ford and Caterpillar are cutting forecasts because of it, and farmers in both countries are panicking. Whether they like it or not, China and the U.S. need each other for economic growth, and investors need a swift resolution in order to regain confidence.   What's Next: To be sure, we should not expect Trump and Xi to leave Buenos Aires with a deal in hand. The best outcome would be an agreement in principle for negotiating a deal that benefits both countries and their trading partners. There have been hints of that all week and today. That (and the Fed's indication that it may slow rate increases) may explain why the U.S. markets rallied 4 out of the last 5 days. As Bruce Springsteen would say, "People are just looking for a reason to believe…"   It's Tango Time!   Heavy Headlines today… here are a few worthy of your attention. Marriott says Starwood database hacked - 500 million accounts affected Someone needs to explain why, despite this happening in 2014, we are just learning about it now. Those beds just became less comfortable. Microsoft officially tops Apple as most valuable company on Earth For today, at least. Crude Oil Futures down 30 percent in 2 months (CME) This is not what we would expect to see in a growing global economy. It's finally   made its way to the pump, in case you hadn't noticed. GM's Barra to meet with lawmakers over job cuts (Reuters) We told you this was going to get political. Tesla hits 1000 cars a day for Model 3 production (Reuters) Well done, Elon Musk for not being the center of a story about Tesla. Now, if only he could can convince NASA that workplace culture at SpaceX is appropriate...   Chart of the Day: Big Scandals and Big Losses for Big Banks It's a case of big banks (allegedly) behaving badly, and investors are being punished harshly for it. Two separate scandals have taken the banking world by storm, and two financial services giants are taking hits that may be very difficult to recover from.   For Goldman Sachs (GS), the investment bank has been entangled in allegations that it was paid substantial fees for deals involving the Malaysian government's state investment fund, in which billions of dollars were later found to be stolen. Goldman's stock dropped precipitously after the revelation earlier this month, and just hit a new two-year low on Friday. Year to date, the stock is now down a whopping 25%.   The situation is even worse for Deutsche Bank (DB), the German banking behemoth. It's being investigated for its possible role in facilitating criminal money laundering through offshore tax havens, along with other major European banks. DB stock hit a new all-time low on Friday just slightly above $9 per share. Year to date, the stock has been cut by more than half.   Overall, banking and financial services stocks have not done well this year. While this could change going into 2019, GS and DB are two stocks that are likely to be pressured for a while.     How can we improve the new Market Sum? Tell us at marketsum@investopedia.com Enjoy the Market Sum?  Share it with a friend.   Click to Share   Or share the link below to invite friends to sign up. http://link.investopedia.com/join/53o/00-fwd-marketsum CONNECT WITH INVESTOPEDIA   Email sent to:  mondemand.forex@blogger.com If you wish to unsubscribe, please click here, or manage subscriptions   114 West 41st St, floor 8 New York NY 10036 © 2018, Investopedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved | Privacy Policy

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-30-18

Dollar Recovers after FOMC Minutes, But Overall Markets in Consolidative Mode

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-29-18 Euro Lower after Inflation Data, Dollar Pare Losses ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting The forex markets are generally staying in familiar range as traders turn cautious ahead of G20 summit and, of course, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. There are rumors flying around on whether there will be a deal of no deal. But it's no to productive to guess at this point. We'll see soon. For today, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one. Dollar follows as it continues to pare Powell inspired losses. Euro is the weakest one for today after weaker than expected inflation and employment data. Sterling and Swiss Franc follow as the next weakest. In other markets, major European indices are trading generally at the time of writing. FTSE is down -0.59%, DAX down -0.38%, CAC down -0.20%. German 10 year yield is down -0.012 at 0.312. Italian 10 year yield is down -0.002 at 3.199. Spread remains below 300. Earlier today, all major indices closed with gains. Nikkei rose 0.40%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.21%, China Shanghai SSE rose 0.81%, Singapore Strait Times rose 0.26%. Released in US session, Canadian GDP dropped -0.1% mom in September, below expectation of 0.1% mom rise. IPPI rose 0.2% mom in October while RMPI dropped -2.4% mom. Canada, Mexico and the US have just signed the USMCA agreement formally. Full Report Here Italian Conte and Tria working with EU to avoid excessive deficit... Into US session: Traders turn cautious ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, Aussie... Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexican President Pana Nieto and US... Euro mildly lower as inflation slowed, unemployment rate unchanged Swiss KOF dropped to 99.1, foreign demand to weaken in coming... Japan industrial production rose 2.9%, strongest since Jan 2015 Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol FOMC Minutes Signals Rate Hike "Fairly Soon", Policy Outlook Masked by...   Fed Chair Powell's U-Turn on Interest Rates?   OPEC+: To Cut or Not to Cut?   Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1361; (P) 1.1381; (R1) 1.1415; More..... EUR/USD weakest mildly today but it's after all, staying in range of 1.1267/1472. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1472 resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1302; h: 1.1215; rs: 1.1267). That will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 1.1814 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1267 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1215 low. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings EURCAD Shows Strength But Outlook Still Negative Investors on Tenterhooks ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting Too Much Hopes On The Market For G20 And Other Policymakers Dollar Confined To A Tight Range On Month-End Ahead Of G20 GBPJPY Trades In Upward Sloping Channel In Near-Term But Lacks Long-Term Direction USDCAD Hovers Below 5-Month High, Bullish In Short- And Long- Term Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Whither Bitcoin? A Review of Past Cycles for the World's Oldest Cryptocurrency Fed Chair Powell's U-Turn on Interest Rates? OPEC+: To Cut or Not to Cut? Brexit Update – The Remaining 1%, The Most Challenging Will Goldilocks Inflation Stay in 2019? China Weekly Letter: All Eyes on the Xi-Trump Meeting Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct 1.50% -1.50% -1.30% 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate Oct 2.40% 2.30% 2.30% 23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M OCt P 2.90% 1.20% -0.40% 00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Nov -13 -11 -10 00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Oct 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Nov 50 50.2 50.2 01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Nov 53.4 53.8 53.9 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Nov 42.9 43.3 43 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct 0.30% 0.20% -1.50% 08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 99.1 99.8 100.1 100.2 10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 8.10% 8.00% 8.10% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 2.00% 2.10% 2.20% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.00% 1.10% 1.10% 13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Oct 0.20% -0.50% 0.10% 0.20% 13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct -2.40% -5.20% -0.90% -1.00% 14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 58.5 58.4

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