Action Insight Daily Report 4-1-19

China Manufacturing PMIs Back in Expansion, Asian Stocks and Australian Dollar Lifted

Action Insight Daily Report 4-1-19 China Manufacturing PMIs Back in Expansion, Asian Stocks and Australian Dollar Lifted Stock markets staged a strong rally in Asian session as lifted by better than expected manufacturing data from China. Both official and Caixin PMI manufactured climbed back into expansionary region, suggests that the worst could be over. Australian Dollar jumps broadly following generally positive risk sentiments, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Sterling also recovers as markets await what's next on Brexit. Yen and Swiss Franc are the weakest naturally, followed by Dollar. Technically, despite today's rally, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are still held in recently established range. Thus, bias in the two pairs remain neutral. Though, EUR/AUD broke 1.5780 support and is heading to 1.5721 low. Break will resume larger decline from 1.6765 flash crash top. USD/JPY's break of 110.95 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 112.13 has completed already and further rise is in favor to retest this resistance. GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both losing downside momentum and there are prospects of some recovery ahead. In other markets, Nikkei closed up 1.43%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.43%. China Shanghai SSE is up 2.52%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.018 at -0.073, still negative though. Full Report Here Japan Tankan large manufacturing dropped to 12, lowest since 2017, large... Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.9, worst quarterly performance since 2016 China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 50.8, employment expands again after... China PMI manufacturing rose to 50.5, economy still in a critical... Australia NAB business conditions improved, but confidence dropped Australia AiG PMI dropped to 51, slower pace of expansion Italy Tria: With Germany at 0.8% growth, Italy will be close... ECB Knot: No Recession or crisis, just cooling off White House: Progress made in candid and construction trade discussions with... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for USD Trimmed on Both... CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Higher Gold and... Risk Aversion to Come Back in Q2 as Stocks and Yields... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics AUD/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7077; (P) 0.7091; (R1) 0.7110; More... AUD/USD rebounds strongly today but stays in range below 0.7168. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7168 will resume the rise from 0.7003 and turn bias to the upside for 0.7295 resistance. Break will extend the whole rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 key resistance level. On the downside, though, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Struggling Euro Shifts Focus to Flash Eurozone CPI RBA Meets; Might Struggle to Stay Neutral GBP/USD And USD/CAD At Risk Of More Losses EUR/USD Turned Bearish Below 1.1280 US Dollar Mixed Awaiting Brexit And Trade Developments Oil Rises On Trade Hope And Dollar Softness Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: What Lies Beyond the Soft First Quarter? The Weekly Bottom Line: When the Downside Risks Loom Large April Optimism Could be Key Turning Point for Global Growth China Weekly Letter: a A US-China Trade Deal is Moving Closer Forward Guidance: Friday Jobs Reports to Highlight the Week Week Ahead – RBA to Mull Dovish Shift; Resilient Dollar Eyes US Jobs Report Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Will the Federal Budget Impact Monetary Policy? Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports RBNZ Review - Next Move would be Rate Cut as Risks to Growth Skewed to Downside Inverted Yield Curve: Is It Different This Time? Which Economies Can Catch A Cold When The Eurozone Sneezes? European Recession Revisited R-Star Wars: The Phantom Menace QE Redux: Have We Been Here Before? Fed Policy Review Part 3 Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Mar 51 54 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 12 13 19 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 8 13 15 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 21 22 24 23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 20 20 20 23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 1.20% 0.80% 14.30% 23:50 JPY Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q1 6 10 14 23:50 JPY Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q1 -2 6 8 23:50 JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 12 9 11 23:50 JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 5 5 5 0:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar 0.40% 0.10% 0:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Mar 7 2 4 0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Mar 0 4 2 0:30 JPY PMI Manufacturing Mar F 49.2 48.9 1:45 CNY Caixin PMI Manufacturing Mar 50.8 50 49.9 5:30 AUD Commodity Index AUD Mar 129.7 6:30 CHF Retail Sales Real Y/Y Feb -0.40% 7:30 CHF PMI Manufacturing Mar 53.5 55.4 7:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar 47.5 47.7 7:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Mar F 49.9 49.8 7:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F 44.7 44.7 8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 47.7 47.6 8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Mar 51.2 52 9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 7.80% 7.80% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 1.50% 1.50% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.00% 1.00% 12:30 USD Retail Sales Advance M/M Feb 0.30% 0.20% 12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb 0.40% 0.90% 13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Mar 52.6 13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Mar F 52.5 52.5 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Mar 54.3 54.2 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Mar 49.4 14:00 USD ISM Employment Mar 52.3 14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb -0.10% 1.30% 14:00 USD Business Inventories Jan 0.40% 0.60%

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