Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-13-19

Dollar Shrugs Pick-up in CPI Inflation, Swiss Franc Rises on Risk Aversion

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-13-19 Dollar Shrugs Pick-up in CPI Inflation, Swiss Franc Rises on Risk Aversion Swiss Franc rises broadly today as risk aversion stays in the markets, even though Yen is firm but relatively unmoved. Sterling also recovers with help from stronger than expected wage growth. On the other hand, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars are the weakest while Australian is not too far away. Though, it should noted that Dollar is soft today despite stronger than expected inflation reading. It seems that pickup in inflation wouldn't stop Fed for further easing should trade tensions escalate further. Technically, USD/CHF's break of 0.9695 support should indicate resumption of fall from 1.0237 to 0.9587 fibonacci level. EUR/CHF also breaks 1.0863 support to resume recent down trend to 1.0645 projection level. Yen crosses would be the focus today, in particular with it's correlation to treasury yields. Further decline in 10- and 30-year yields in US could drag Yen crosses lower, in particular USD/JPY. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -0.81%. DAX is down -1.16%. CAC is down -0.72%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0169%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0169 at -0.606. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.11%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.10%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.63%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.70%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0147 to -0.234. Full Report Here US CPI accelerated to 1.8%, core up to 2.2% Trump said to request Japanese PM Abe to buy farm products German ZEW dropped to -44.1, significant deterioration in outlook UK unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, but wage growth accelerated UK retailers urge Chancellor Javid to fix broken business rates system Japan: South Korea fails to show how we fall short of... Australia NAB business conditions dropped to 2, further RBA easing and... RBA Kent: Monetary policy effect on Australian Dollar broadly working as... Singapore slashes 2019 growth forecasts to 0.0-1.0%, uncertainties and risks increased Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Political Turmoil In Italy Signals Further Widening Yield Spread CFTC Commitments of Traders – JPY Drifted to NET LENGTH for... CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on Energy Futures Trimmed... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9709; (R1) 0.9737; More... USD/CHF's firm break of 0.9695 support now suggests resumption of fall from 1.0237. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9587 fibonacci level first. Break will target 100% projection of 1.0237 to 0.9695 from 0.9975 at 0.9433. On the upside, break of 0.9797 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings US 30 Index Caught In No-Man's Land US Open – Argentina, Italy, UK Data, Gold, Oil GBPUSD Extends Collapse, Finds Floor At 138.2% Fibonacci USDTRY May Need A Bounce Above 5.780 Financial Markets Gripped Firmly By Geopolitical Risks Oil Demand Remains Weak Hong Kong Concerns Keep Risk Aversion In Play It Is A Risk Off Day EURJPY Short-Term Bias Is Still Skewed To The Downside Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Political Turmoil In Italy Signals Further Widening Yield Spread Down Under For Longer As the Trade War Fires Up, What's Next for Markets? US-China Trade: Three Trade War Scenarios – 'No Deal' Now Our Baseline Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.10% -0.50% 01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Jul 2 1 3 01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 4 3 2 04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun -0.10% -0.10% -0.20% 0.00% 06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jul P -33.00% -37.90% 08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Jul 28.0K 42.0K 38.0K 31.4K 08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jul 3.20% 3.20% 08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jun 3.70% 3.70% 3.40% 3.50% 08:30 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Jun 3.90% 3.80% 3.60% 08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jun 3.90% 3.80% 3.80% 09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -44.1 -28 -24.5 09:00 EUR German ZEW Current Situation Aug -13.5 -5.9 -1.1 09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -43.6 -21.7 -20.3 10:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism Jul 104.7 104 103.3 12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% 12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.30% 12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jul 2.20% 2.10% 2.10%

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