Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-19

Risk Aversion Back on Recession Fear, Yen Regains Control

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-19 Risk Aversion Back on Recession Fear, Yen Regains Control Risk aversion quickly comes back to the market as German data suggests that the economy is on the edge of recession. Major European indices are trading in deep red and German 10-year yield also hit new record low at -0.649. Sentiments are further weighed down by US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' comments, which suggested that tariff delay on China was merely for avoiding Christmas seasons disruption. At the time of writing, Yen is the strongest one for today followed by Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies are weakest as led by Australian Dollar. Technically, near term outlook of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY remain bearish with 107.09, 119.87 and 130.06 minor resistance levels intact. Focuses are back on 105.04, 117.51 and 126.54 temporary lows respectively. Break will resume recent declines. AUD/USD seems to be rejected by 0.6822 minor resistance deeper fall today would put focus on 0.6677 temporary low. Also, USD/CAD is heading back to 1.3345 resistance and break will resume recent rebound from 1.3016. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -1.31%. DAX is down -1.94%. CAC is down -1.80%. German 10-year yield is down -0.032 at -0.637. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.98%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.08%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.42%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.03%. Japan 10 year JGB yield rose 0.133 to -0.22. Full Report Here US Ross: Tariff delays not quid pro quo with China Germany Altmaier said can avoid recession with right measures, but government... Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% in Q2, employment rose 0.2% UK CPI rose to 2.1%, core CPI rose to 1.9% German GDP contracted -0.1% in Q2, 10-year yield hits new record... China industrial production slowed to 4.8%, lowest in 17 year, other... Australia wage price index rose 3.6% qoq, on the back of... Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 3.6%, superficially a surprise Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Chinese Data Surprised to Downside in July. Tariff Delay Won't Help... Political Turmoil In Italy Signals Further Widening Yield Spread CFTC Commitments of Traders – JPY Drifted to NET LENGTH for... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.55; (P) 106.26; (R1) 107.46; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Also, with 107.09 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.94). Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings EURGBP Uptrend Pauses For Breath Markets Pare Tariff Gains BTCUSD Slips Below 100-EMA And Ichimoku Cloud GBPCAD Picks Up Some Upside Momentum, Outlook Still Bearish Partial Tariffs Delay, Argentine Peso In Free Fall AUDUSD Keeps Range-Bound Trading Below 0.6820 Market Mood Brightens On China Tariff Delay USDJPY Retraces Spike Higher As 107 Blocks The Bulls Dollar and Stocks Rally in Relief after Tariff Delays Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Chinese Data Surprised to Downside in July. Tariff Delay Won't Help Arrest Slowdown Reprieve: Roughly 60% of New Tariffs Delayed Sterling Rates Show 'No-Deal' Complacency Remains Political Turmoil In Italy Signals Further Widening Yield Spread Down Under For Longer US-China Trade: Three Trade War Scenarios – 'No Deal' Now Our Baseline Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jun 13.90% -1.00% -7.80% 00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Aug 3.60% -4.10% 01:30 AUD Wage Price Index Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.50% 0.50% 02:00 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Jul 5.70% 5.90% 5.80% 02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul 4.80% 6.00% 6.30% 02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 7.60% 8.60% 9.80% 02:00 CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate Jul 5.30% 5.10% 06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% -0.10% 0.40% 08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul 0.00% -0.10% 0.00% 08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 2.10% 1.90% 2.00% 08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.90% 1.80% 1.80% 08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 2.80% 2.80% 2.90% 08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul 0.90% 0.60% -1.40% -0.80% 08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul 1.30% 0.30% -0.30% 0.30% 08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul 0.30% 0.10% -0.10% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jul 0.40% 0.10% 0.10% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 2.00% 1.70% 1.70% 08:30 GBP House Price Index Y/Y Jun 0.90% 1.00% 1.20% 0.90% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun -1.60% -1.40% 0.90% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 P 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul 0.20% -0.10% -0.90% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.5M 2.4M

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