US-China trade/currency war, no-deal Brexit, global slowdown and central bank easing were the main themes last week. The perceived risks to global economy were moving closer to materializing. Free fall in Chinese Yuan at the start of the week triggered US in designating China as currency manipulator. New 10% US tariffs on USD 300B in Chinese goods are coming on September 1. But it looks like tensions between the two countries would only increase, while there appears to be no ground for a deal. Further, North Korea fired two short-range missiles on Saturday, which South Korea named as a "show of force" against US. The tests came a few hours after Trump said he received another "very beautiful letter" from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. For now, there is no explicit link between North Korea's move to intensification of US-China tensions. Risks of no-deal Brexit on October 31 intensified too with neither EU nor UK appear to be doing something to avoid it. Economic data from UK and Germany were weak, reflecting increasing impacts from global uncertainties. RBNZ surprised the markets by cutting OCR by -50bps. All such developments send global equities and treasury yields lower. In particular, German 10-year yield hit another record low. In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar ended as the weakest one, RBNZ cut. Sterling was the second weakest on recession fear and no-deal Brexit risks. Australian Dollar was third weakest, as RBNZ could give additional pressure for RBA to cut interest rates ahead. Swiss Franc and Yen ended as the strongest ones on risk aversion and falling treasury yields. Looking ahead, Chinese Yuan and stocks remain the biggest source of risks to the global markets. We'd expect sentiments to continue to turn sour. |
No comments:
Post a Comment