Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-19-19

Focus Turning to Trade Talks after BoE, SNB and BoJ

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-19-19 Focus Turning to Trade Talks after BoE, SNB and BoJ Swiss Franc and Yen are trading as the strongest for today so far. Both like lifted by somewhat dovish yet balanced central bank decisions. There are no clear indication of imminent policy easing from SNB nor BoJ yet. On other hand, commodity currencies are generally lower as led by Australian, which is pressured by rise in unemployment rate. Sterling closely follows after BoE rate decision trigger little reactions. Dollar is also slightly softer, following yesterday's post FOMC rebound. If we purely look at Fed's dot plot and projections, the mid-cycle adjustment should be completed after yesterday's rate cut. But decisions would remain heavily dependent on upcoming developments. Focuses are quickly turning to the deputy-level US-China trade talks in Washington. In Europe, FTSE is currently up 0.66%. DAX is up 0.45%. CAC is up 0.64%. German 10-year yield is up 0.003 at -0.507. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.38%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.07%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.46%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0447 to -0.226. Full Report Here US-China deputy level trade talks to focus heavily on agricultural purchases Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index dropped to 12, prices increased notably US initial jobless claims rose 2k to 208k Ireland Coveney hasn't seen any credible proposal on Irish backstop alternatives... BoE kept rate unchanged at 0.75% by unanimous votes Swiss Franc rebounds on SNB's less dovish than expected hold BoJ stands pat, global downside risks increasing New Zealand GDP grew 0.5%, services led Australia employment grew 34.7k, unemployment rate rose to 5.3% Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol SNB Raises Exemption Threshold for Negative Rate; CHF Rises on No... FOMC Cut Rate by -25 bps. Third Cut Still Possible Despite... US Oil Inventory Climbed Higher Across the Board, After Weeks of... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9940; (P) 0.9962; (R1) 0.9997; More... USD/CHF drops sharply after failing to sustain above 0.9975 key resistance. But it's holding above 0.9854 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9975 will confirm completion of fall form 1.0237. Further rally would then be seen to retest this high. On the downside, though, break of 0.9854 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 0.9659 low. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Focus Shifts from Fed Back to Trade, Oil Rises as Gold Steadies Yields in Renewed Weakness Amid Plethora of Central Banks Meetings European Open – Fed, BoE, Gold, Oil SNB Plays It Tactically Safe Powell Put, Or Powell Pause GBPJPY Bullish Vibes Still Evident European Markets Trade Lower In Fed's Aftermath FTSE Dips But Recovers On Earnings Market Brief: Less Dovish Fed Has Not Derailed Risk On Appetite In Stocks Fed Assures That Economy 'Is Okay', Is It Worth Believing? Markets Unimpressed By Fed's Hawkish Cut, Aussie Slips On Weak Jobs Data EURCHF Still In A Downtrend, But Shows Early Reversal Signs Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Fed Cuts Rates 25 Bps. Is Further Easing On The Way? FOMC Cut Rate by -25 bps. Third Cut Still Possible Despite Sounding Less Dovish Moody's and Fitch's Downgrade Hong Kong on Concerns about Closer Link with China A US-Iran War Would Trigger A Global Recession RBA Minutes Repeat Key Themes - Case for an October Cut Still Intact Oil 'Supply Shock' in Context Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.50% 0.40% 0.60% 01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug 34.7K 20K 41.1K 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 5.30% 5.20% 5.20% 04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul 0.20% 0.40% -0.80% -0.70% 06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Aug 1.59B 3.22B 3.63B 3.69B 07:30 CHF SNB Policy Rate -0.75% -0.75% -0.75% 08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 20.5B 20.3B 18.4B 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Aug -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Aug 2.70% 2.90% 3.30% 3.40% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Aug -0.30% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Aug 2.20% 2.60% 2.90% 3.10% 11:00 GBP BoE Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target Sep 435B 435B 435B 11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--0--09 0--0--09 0--0--09 11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--09 0--0--09 0--0--09 12:30 CAD ADP Payroll Estimates Aug 49.3K 73.7K 30.2K 12:30 USD Current Account Balance (USD) Q2 -128B -127B -130B -136B 12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep 12 10.8 16.8 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 14) 208K 210K 204K 206K 14:00 USD Leading Index Aug 0.10% 0.50% 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Aug 5.39M 5.42M 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 75B 78B

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