Friday's Headlines 1. US markets close out worst week since 2008 2. The Federal Reserve is watching and will "act as appropriate" 3. Sole survivor: Which stock actually climbed this week? 4. What to expect next week Markets Closed
Year-to-Date
Markets Today The intense selling of stocks continued today as more terrifying headlines about the spread of COVID-19 dominated the airwaves and overwhelmed investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve calmed the waters for a brief moment this afternoon by issuing a statement in which it promised to, "..act as appropriate."
The Fed elaborated, saying that:
That trimmed some of the losses for a few minutes, but the selling accelerated into the final hour of trading with losses on the DJIA and the S&P 500 topping 3.5% yet again. With ten minutes to go before the close, those losses shrunk by more than half, and the Nasdaq even managed to squeeze out a small gain. Guess which stocks led the gains and actually managed to close in the green today? Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon. That's #MAGA power!
When we see that kind of movement in that short a time frame, we know that trading algorithms are moving the market. It's painful and paralyzing to watch it happen as an individual investor who is trying to do the right thing and be patient, but that is our new normal.
When the smoke cleared, the three major U.S. indexes had lost between 10 to 12.3% over the course of the week, representing almost $4 trillion in market value. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield hit another all-time low of 1.127%. Headlines:
Drawdowns in Perspective We write a lot about maintaining perspective as a market participant in good times and bad. It's hard to have perspective when your portfolio suffers a 10-15% drawdown over the course of a week, but if you want to enjoy the upside, you have to be able to stomach the losses.
This week put that investing principle to the test as the S&P 500 fell 15.8% from its most recent high to its intraday low. That's more than the average intrayear drawdown, and it's only March. Some say this market had it coming given high valuations for many of the top-performing stocks, and the artificial stimulus from the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate cuts and its bond buying program. But the intensity of the selloff took a lot of investors by surprise and the volatility that came with it makes that perspective hard to maintain.
We are going to have to learn to live with it, I'm afraid. chart courtesy YCharts
Winner and Losers of the Week It was easy to find losing stocks this week. You didn't have to look much further than the travel and energy sectors to find companies trashed by the coronavirus epidemic like Royal Caribbean (RCL), American Airlines (AAL), Cimarex Energy (XEC), and Devon Energy (DVN).
There was but one company in the S&P 500 that posted a positive return this week. That was Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which surged 11%. The company announced back on February 4th that it was working with the U.S. Heath and Human Services Department on developing coronavirus antibodies, but hasn't said much since. Other pharma companies like Gilead Sciences (GILD) have also said they are working on treatments, but only Regeneron avoided the selloff this week. That's a little peculiar, but so was this week. What to Expect from the Week Ahead First, let's take a look at the year-to-date return of different asset classes. It's not pretty. Here are some of the key economic events on the calendar for the week ahead:
Sunday March 1
Monday March 2
EuroPMI
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS) Even as energy prices continued to drop, some energy firms regained part of the past month's losses, with Antero Resources, Transocean, and Centennial Resources all gaining by double digits today. Digital ad business, Trade Desk, rose today after reporting much higher-than-expected profits. Plant-based meat substitute maker, Beyond Meat, fell more than 15% after reporting earnings. Sales were good, but its 2020 guidance for profit margins was lower than what many analysts had hoped for. Cloud computing firm, VMware, fell after it also reported strong sales but lower-than-expected earnings. Word of the Day A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight. Image: Underwood Archives / Contributor
Today in History February 28, 1827 Today in 1827, the Baltimore and Ohio (B&O) Railroad was chartered. The B&O was the first intercity railroad in the U.S., as well as the first one chartered to transport both freight and passengers. It raised $3 million in stock at $100 a share, with shares being offered to individual investors, allowing widespread purchases. Construction began in 1828, and its first track, a 13-mile stretch in Maryland, opened in 1830. It continued to expand its track, reaching Chicago and St. Louis by the 1870's, and Cleaveland by 1901. B&O went through a number of restructurings and acquisitions, and its routes that are still in operation are run by CSX Corporation.
Source: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Baltimore-and-Ohio-Railroad and https://www.preservationmaryland.org/only-in-maryland-bo-railroad-chartered-by-the-state-of-maryland/
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Friday, February 28, 2020
Little Relief
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