By Caleb Silver, Editor in Chief
Thursday's Headlines 1. US markets rise in highly volatile session 2. Oil prices rise 23% in biggest daily jump ever 3. Trump alludes to US taking stakes in bailed out companies 4. Wall Street says we are already in a recession 5. Stock winners and losers in the past year Markets Closed
Kevin Hagan/AP
Markets Today U.S. markets closed higher today in a wildly volatile session that saw the DJIA swing more than 1,000 points throughout the day, and selling off at the bell. That's been the pattern lately, but the trend remains lower. It's shaping up to be the worst week for Dow Industrials since 2008. Tech stocks did rally today, and we finally saw some action in big stocks that used to lead all rallies. Shares of Amazon (AMZN) rallied close to 3% and Netflix (NFLX) jumped 5%. Both are well suited for the "stay-at-home" economy we find ourselves in now.
Oil rallied 23% higher today, its biggest jump ever. That follows one of its biggest declines ever—just yesterday. See the pattern? The WSJ reported that the U.S. might be working on a deal to bring OPEC's Saudi Arabia and OPEC+'s Russia back to the table after they split two weeks ago, which sent energy prices plummeting.
While U.S. lawmakers still debate the $1.3 trillion stimulus bill, industries that have been hard hit by the crisis have their hands out, in a big way.
President Trump said Thursday he would consider having the federal government take equity stakes in companies accepting federal aid in a bailout geared toward blunting the economic impact from the widening coronavirus outbreak. If that sounds like a movie you've seen before, it's right out of the playbook for the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09. The U.S. government made out pretty well in that deal, as did many companies and their executives, thanks to some juicy stock buybacks.
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Headlines:
No Need to Wait for a Recession We are already in one, according to several investment bank research teams. Bank of America says second quarter growth will plunge 12% from just 0.5% in the first quarter, but will rebound from there. Goldman Sachs' research team has a similar assessment, saying growth in February was already down 0.2%, but has accelerated as the health crisis went global. You can see the softness in lower goods-sector activity (declines in container exports, steel output, and both consumer and industrial rail volumes) and weakness in some parts of the service sector (declines in retail spending, box office movie receipts, and hotel occupancy).
Remember—a recession used to be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, but the National Bureau of Economic Research changed that after the last recession. The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
Sounds about right. This is what it looks like, courtesy of ECRI, which measures economic cycles to predict recessions. They were calling for one in January. P.S. We put this handy guide together for our readers who are asking us a lot of questions about how to navigate their investments and personal finances in times of heavy volatility. Take a look. We hope it helps.
Stocks: Winners and Losers In a highly choppy market like this one, it's hard to see trends—especially when they are all heading in the same direction. But, just for fun, we dug up a few stocks making 52-week highs today. And there were only a few of them across the major U.S. indexes.
Walmart (WMT) hit a 52-week high as the king of retailers is cleaning up as consumers panic buy. BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), Walmart's cousin, also hit highs for the past year as consumers stockpile staples in bulk. Shares of WD40 (WDFC) also slid higher, because you just never know when you need to get the rust out.
Chart courtesy YCharts On the flip side, there were over 1,100 companies hitting 52-week lows today. The names won't surprise you, and neither will the fact that a couple of them are in the aforementioned industries seeking a government bailout.
Coca-Cola (KO) is having sales problems all over the planet, for obvious reasons. YUM Brands (YUM), which owns KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, among others, is the poster child for discretionary spending and is therefore getting punished. The same can be said for Dunkin (DNKN), as Americans are not grabbing a glazed donut and a large coffee on their way to work these days.
(chart courtesy YCHARTS) Shares of Akamai Technologies are up by nearly 10% as the content delivery network and cloud service provider is seeing an uptick in video streaming by self-quarantining consumers. Gilead Sciences' stock price rose by more than 6% today following reports that a COVID-19 treatment the biotech company is developing could see quick approval by the FDA. Shares of Coty have fallen by a massive 31% as the entire beauty industry reels from the coronavirus' impact. United Airlines Holdings' stock price has dropped by more than 30%, with the ongoing pandemic making the survival of most major airlines seem less and less likely. Word of the Day A state-owned enterprise (SOE) is a legal entity that is created by a government in order to partake in commercial activities on the government's behalf. It can be either wholly or partially owned by a government and is typically earmarked to participate in specific commercial activities.
image courtesy moaf.org
Today in History March 19th, 1792: Wall Street has its first major crash in history, on "Black Monday," as 6% Treasury bonds lost 10% of their value and shares in the Bank of the United States dropped 12%. Speculator William Duer, a friend of Alexander Hamilton, borrowed too much money and was about to be thrown in debtors' prison, spreading panic through the cobblestone streets of downtown Manhattan.
Richard Sylla, "William Duer and the Stock Market Crash of 1792," Friends of Financial History, No. 46 (1992), pp. 26–29.
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Thursday, March 19, 2020
Unbowed
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