Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-7-18

Yen and Swiss Franc Higher after Sharp Sterling Volatility, Dollar Looks to ISM Services

Action Insight Daily Report 9-7-18 Dollar Rises on Solid NFP and Wage Growth, Sterling Even Stronger on EU Barnier Sterling surged sharply today as once against lifted by Brexit. The direct trigger isn't clear but it's believed to be comments by EU Barnier. Dollar is following as the second strongest with help from another set of solid non-farm payroll data. In particular, wage growth beat an already high expectation. Despite a terribly week job report, Canadian Dollar is still trading as the third strongest one. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins assured the market yesterday that it's on track for more rate hike despite NAFTA uncertainties Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are trading as the weakest ones for today. Worries over escalation of US-China trade war are weighing on these two currencies. The public hearing on US 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese goods has completed. Trump is ready to fire another shot any time. And, without a doubt, China's retaliation of USD 60B in US imports will follow. Euro is following as the third weakest for now, partly due to heavy selling in EUR/GBP. Technically, EUR/GBP's break of 0.8937 support now indicates near term reversal. That is, rise from 0.8620 might have completed earlier than expected. Near term outlook is turned bearish for deeper fall. GBP/USD is having its sight on 1.3042 resistance for resuming the corrective rebound form 1.2661. On the other hand, EUR/USD is having its sight on 1.1529 for completing equivalent corrective rebound from 1.1300. USD/CHF looks like having defended 0.9651 support and could recover further towards 0.9766 minor resistance. USD/JPY and USD/CAD could be heading back to 111.82 and 1.3225 resistance respectively. Full Report Here Dollar surges as NFP added 201k, wage grew 0.4%, Canadian pressured... Into US session: Sterling surges as the strongest, CAD and USD... China FX reserve dropped $8.2B in Aug, no large scale direction... An update of AUD/JPY short, lower stop to breakeven Boston Fed Rosengren: More policy buffers needed to mitigate future shocks Chicago Fed Evans reiterated interest rate could go beyond neutral USDJPY dipped as Japan could be Trump's next trade target BoC Wilkins: Trade developments have both downside and upside risks, gradual... US-Canada NAFTA negotiations continue to drag on Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol US Crude Oil Inventory Fell More Than Expected, While Fuel Stockpiles... BOC Affirmed the Case of October Rate Hike, Downplayed Strong Growth... Tale of Two Crises – Comparing Argentina and Turkey Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.34; More... USD/JPY's strong rebound surges that corrective fall from 111.89 has completed with three waves down to 110.37. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 111.82 first. Break will resume the rebound from 109.76 and target 113.17. For now, we're holding on to the view that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. Hence, even in case of another decline, we'd continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings EURGBP Turns Neutral in Near-Term after Break Below Uptrend Line Earnings the Standout of Another Strong US Jobs Report Sterling above $1.30 on Barnier Comments as Trade Jitters Weigh on Aussie; US Jobs Data Awaited GBP/USD Attempting to Pierce Upwards through the Downward Channel EUR/USD: Displays Possibilities of a Bullish Presence, but Must Breakout of Downward Trend Fundamentals: Gold And Oil Ahead Of US NFP Data Bear Market Blues GBPJPY Holds In Narrow Range, Indicators Signal Bullish Bias Chinese Trade Data Eyed As Tensions With The US Look Set To Escalate, Aussie Also In Focus Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Tale of Two Crises – Comparing Argentina and Turkey As US Set to Ramp Up Trade War with China, Where Next for the Dollar? Italy's Debt Problem Returns to Spotlight as Agencies Threaten to Downgrade The Drivers of the Loonie Death of NAFTA? Or Just Trump's Lip Service The Real Meaning of "No Deal" Brexit Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Aug 51.8 52 23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jul 0.10% -0.80% -1.20% 00:00 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jul 1.50% 2.40% 3.60% 3.30% 01:30 AUD Home Loans M/M Jul 0.40% -0.10% -1.10% -0.80% 05:00 JPY Leading Index CI (JUL P) 103.50% 103.50% 104.70% 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 15.8B 19.1B 19.3B 06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jul -1.10% 0.20% -0.90% 07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug 731B 750B 07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices M/M Aug 0.10% 0.50% 1.40% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug -51.6K 5.1K 54.1K 12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 6.00% 5.90% 5.80% 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Aug 201K 194K 157K 147K 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% 14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 62.3 61.8

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