Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-30-19

Dollar Surges after Strong ADP Job Data, FOMC Next

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-30-19 Dollar Surges after Strong ADP Job Data, FOMC Next Dollar jumps notably in early US session against Swiss Franc and Yen following stronger than expected ADP job report. But strength in the greenback is not broad based. Traders are cautiously await FOMC statement and press conference, to see how cautious Fed would sound. There is prospect of a stronger comeback in Dollar should Fed doesn't sound dovish at all. In addition, any news from meeting of Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will also be closely watched. Staying in the currency markets, Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for today following stronger than expected CPI reading. Canadian Dollar follows closely with help from rebound in oil price. Sterling is mildly higher today as Brexit uncertainties continue. The Pound is the weakest for the week following yesterday's Brexit development. While UK Prime Minister Theresa May is seeking re-negotiation on Irish backstop, EU shows no sign of backing down from the stance of not reopening negotiation. Technically, USD/CHF's break of 0.9990 resistance suggests resumption of rally from 0.9716. The pair should now head towards 1.0128 key resistance. USD/JPY will likely take on 110.00 resistance too. For now, AUD/USD is held below 0.7235 resistance, and thus, it's staying in near term consolidation. Similarly, USD/CAD is held above 1.3180 support and is staying in consolidation too. In European markets, FTSE is up 1.67%. DAX is down -0.29%. CAC is up 0.75%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0123 at 0.191, back below 0.2 handle. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.52%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.40%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.72%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.42%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0014 to 0.003. Full Report Here Into US session: AUD and CAD strongest, but upside capped below... US ADP employment grew 213k, job market weathered government shutdown well Germany CPI slowed sharply to 1.4% in Jan, Euro shrugs Irish Conveny urges UK May to hold her previous words on... Swiss KOF dropped to 95.0, negative developments in manufacturing and services German Gfk consumer sentiment rose to 10.8 France GDP rose 0.3%, matched expectations Asian update: Sterling found footing after selloff, Aussie rises on CPI FOMC forward guidance and balance sheet reduction plan watched Australia CPI slowed to 1.8%, but beat expectations EU Tusk: Brexit withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation Sterling drops as UK seeks to reopen Brexit negotiation Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Brexit Update : Less Clarity, More Confusion after Another Vote FOMC Preview – How Dovish is the Fed? FOMC, Government Reopen, US-China Trade Talks & NFP ahead for Dollar Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9917; (P) 0.9938; (R1) 0.9968; More.... USD/CHF's strong rally and break of 0.9990 resistance suggests resumption of rise from 0.9716. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, corrective pull back from 1.0128 has completed at 0.9716 already. Rise from 0.9716 should target 1.0128 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9905 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings EUR/USD Hangs in Balance ahead of Fed, NFP and Eurozone Data Dollar Frozen ahead FOMC Decision and Start of High Level US-China Trade Talks EURJPY Creates Positively Aligned Channel in Near Term Pound Rattled by Brexit Vote; FOMC in Focus Sterling Slumps After Brexit Shenanigans All Eyes On Washington On Wednesday Chinese Manufacturing PMIs Eyed Amid Sharp Slowdown Fears AUDUSD Surpasses Bullish Cross Of SMAs, Still Negative In Long Term Gold Extends Bullish Impetus Further Beyond 1,300 Moment Of Brexit Reckoning Saved But Until When? Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Canada Filling China-U.S. Trade War Gaps? Don't Count On It Is The Eurozone Economy Close To Recession? BOJ Cut CPI Forecasts, But Is it Realistic to Expect Tax Hike will Help Inflation? Chinese Economy Shows Signs of Stabilization in Late 2018. More Challenge Ahead Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Dec 1.30% 0.90% 1.40% 00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jan 0.40% 0.30% 00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q4 1.80% 1.70% 1.90% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q4 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q4 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jan 41.9 42.5 42.7 06:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q4 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Feb 10.8 10.3 10.4 08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jan 95 98.1 96.3 96.4 09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Dec 64K 63K 64K 09:30 GBP Money Supply M4 M/M Dec 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jan 0.69 0.73 0.82 0.86 10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jan 106.2 106.7 107.3 107.4 10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jan 0.5 0.6 1.1 2.3 10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jan 11 11.2 12 12.2 10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan F -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 -8.3 13:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jan P -0.80% -0.80% 0.10% 13:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jan P 1.40% 1.60% 1.70% 13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jan 213K 170K 271K 263K 15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Dec 1.10% -0.70% 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M 8.0M 19:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.50% 2.50% 19:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.25% 2.25%

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