Action Insight Weekly Report 10-6-19

Dollar Ended Lower on Recession Fear and Fed Cut Bets, Awaits Trade Talks

Action Insight Weekly Report 10-6-19 Dollar Ended Lower on Recession Fear and Fed Cut Bets, Awaits Trade Talks Weakness in Sterling and Euro was the main directions in the forex markets last week. Dollar tried to extend recent rally but ended mixed only. Upside of the greenback was limited by persistent trade uncertainties. While commodity currencies ended higher, they have just merely turned into consolidations and pared some recent losses. A major question for the near term is whether EUR/USD's selloff would extend after making new 2019 low last week. Also, EUR/GBP appeared to have bottomed for the near term. Stronger rebound in EUR/GBP could trigger deeper selloff in the Pound elsewhere, in particular against Dollar and Yen. Full Report Here Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/JPY Weekly Outlook USD/JPY's sharp decline last week argues that corrective recovery from 104.45 has completed at 108.47, ahead of 109.31 key resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 104.45 low first. On the upside, above 107.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Disappointing Data and More Central Bank Cuts The Weekly Bottom Line: Mixed Signals on Strength of Expansion Forward Guidance: Whither (or Wither…) the Services Sector? Dollar on Backfoot as US Data Disappoints Week Ahead: US-China Trade Talks Set to Resume as global Economy Shivers Pound Overplayed as EU Half Plays Along Week ahead – Interim Trade Deal or Another Salvo of Tariffs? China Weekly Letter – Is the Chinese Business Cycle Turning? Brexit Monitor: PM Johnson's Proposal Not Sufficient for the EU – Next Week Will be Crucial for the Negotiations Weekly Focus: US-China Trade Showdown Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Concerns over Capital Outflow in Hong Kong Exaggerated Low Probability of a Follow Up November RBA Move Despite Market Pricing of ~50% Chance US-China Trade: 60% Probability of Interim Deal Next Week Political Pressure, Trade Policy and Potential Market Effect What To Expect From Central Banks In The Next Global Downturn ECB Snaps, Crackles, then Watches Rates Pop RBA: A Gentle Turn To More Rate Cuts RBA Lowers the Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points; Leaves Open Options for Even Lower Rates

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