Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-31-20

Dollar Mildly Lower after PCE Inflation, But Commodity Currencies Even Weaker

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-31-20 Dollar Mildly Lower after PCE Inflation, But Commodity Currencies Even Weaker Dollar turns slightly weaker in early US session as core PCE inflation data stayed well below Fed's target. Nevertheless, as risk aversion remains in the markets, commodity currencies continue to be the weakest ones. Sterling continues to rise on post BoE rebound but there is no clear range breakout yet. Strength in Swiss Franc appears to be lifting Euro slightly higher too. But overall, traders would likely stay cautious before weekly close, awaiting development regarding China's coronavirus in the coming weekend. Technically, USD/CHF's break of 0.9678 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.9613 has completed after rejection by 0.9762 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.9613 low. EUR/CHF also weakens mildly but stays well above 1.0665 temporary low. EUR/GBP is now eyeing 0.8386 temporary low and break will bring retest of 0.8276 support. In Europe, FTSE is down -0.64%. DAX is down -0.40%. CAC is down -0.39%. German 10-year yield is down -0.012 at -0.417. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.99%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.53%. 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0088 to -0.063. Full Report Here US PCE rose to 1.6%, core PCE rose to 1.6% Canada GDP grew 0.1% in November, matched expectations UK Johnson: Brexit is a moment of real national renewal and... Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% in Q4, CPI rose to 1.4% in... France GDP contracted -0.1% qoq in Q4 Japan industrial production contracted most since 2013 in Q4, despite Dec... China's coronavirus cases hit 9692, death toll at 213 Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOE Voted 7-2 to Keep Rate Unchanged, Warned of Weak Inflation US Crude Inventory Gained over 3M bpd, while Distillate Stockpile Continued... Fed Delivered Message with Dovish Tweak, Remaining Concerned about Low Inflation Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9671; (P) 0.9705; (R1) 0.9729; More... USD/CHF's break of 0.9678 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9614 has completed at 0.9766. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9613 low. Break will resume larger fall form 1.0237 to 100% projection from 1.0237 to 0.9659 from 1.0023 at 0.9445. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9766 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings The UK Departs, Coronavirus, BoE The Pound Gets A Boost From BoE's Interest Rate Decision GBPCAD Bullish At Six-Week Highs, Indicators Remain Positive Dollar Index Futures Pull Back In Downward Sloping Channel Early Signs Of Slowdown In Spread Of Coronavirus Aussie Tanks On Virus Worries, Pound Flies As BoE Holds GBPJPY Confined Within A Trading Range, Bulls Picking Up Chinese Manufacturing Slows, WHO Rings The Alarm Bell, But Markets Recover. UK Exits The EU. Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Coronavirus Impact on the Chinese Economy An Early Read on the Coronavirus Risk One Big Reason Traders May STILL Be Underestimating Coronavirus Risks Research China: Uncertainty on the Rise on the Back of Corona Virus Euro Area Research: From US-China Trade Ceasefire To US-EU Trade War? The 2020 Election and the Economy: Part III Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Dec 2.20% 2.30% 2.20% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Dec P 1.30% 0.70% -1.00% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Dec -2.60% -1.80% -2.10% 00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jan -9 -9 -11 00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% 00:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q4 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 00:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q4 1.40% 1.40% 1.60% 02:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jan 50 50.1 50.2 02:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI Jan 54.1 53.5 53.5 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Dec -7.90% -11.50% -12.70% 06:30 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.10% 0.30% 0.30% 07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Dec -3.30% -0.50% 2.10% 1.60% 07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% 0.50% 09:00 EUR Italy GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.30% 0.00% 0.10% 09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Dec 67K 66K 65K 66K 09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Dec 0.10% 0.60% 0.80% 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan P 1.40% 1.40% 1.30% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jan P 1.10% 1.20% 1.30% 13:30 CAD GDP M/M Nov 0.10% 0.10% -0.10% 13:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index Dec 2.80% 0.70% 1.50% 1.40% 13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Dec 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -0.10% 13:30 USD Personal Income M/M Dec 0.20% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 13:30 USD Personal Spending Dec 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 13:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Dec 0.30% 0.10% 0.20% 0.10% 13:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.70% 1.50% 1.40% 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.50% 13:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q4 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 14:45 USD Chicago PMI Jan 48.7 48.9 15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Jan F 99.3 99.1

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