Friday's Headlines 1. U.S. markets close higher to end record setting week 2. China's economic growth rate slows 3. Stocks have been quietly churning higher as volatility disappears 4. These stocks are making all-time highs 5. What to expect next week (Hint: A lot of earnings) Markets Closed
Year-to-Date
Markets Today "I like to ride a horse that's running," said hedge fund titan David Tepper to CNBC today. Tepper, like a lot of investors, must be enjoying this ride. All major U.S. equity markets hit record highs again today as stocks kept grinding higher. Nearly a quarter of stocks in the S&P 500 hit all-time highs, and they were not all technology stocks. We are in rare times and we got here through interesting paths. As one Wall St. research team put it in a note this morning: "We've had $12 trillion of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008; We've had $1 trillion in stock buybacks in the past 5 years by the top 20 companies, which comes out to around $381,000 per employee; Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all worth $1 trillion or more each; We are just 5% away from the S&P 500 becoming the largest bull market of all time in percentage terms, and the value of financial assets is 5 times the size of U.S. GDP."
We are in an asset bubble. Act accordingly.
Headlines
Range-Bound chart courtesy Bespoke Investments Volatility is on vacation, at least for now. It will come back, whether it's driven by news events or a sudden change in investor sentiment brought on by market forces, it will return. We just don't know when.
Stocks Making Record Highs With record highs for market indexes come record highs for stocks. As of midday today, 111 of the 505 stocks in the S&P 500 were at record highs. And it's not just tech stocks. The list is varied and robust. Here are just a few:
When you see Spam makers, sneaker companies, hotel chains, chipmakers, industrial manufacturers, and entertainment companies making that list, the bulls are in command. We already know that valuations are top heavy given the S&P 500's 18.5 forward P/E ratio that we discussed yesterday. Another way of looking at it is through what we call the Overbought level - stocks above their 50-day moving average. We are at the top of that range. chart courtesy Bespoke Investments The Week Ahead We are rolling into the holiday-shortened week at record highs for U.S. markets, and now that Phase One of the U.S.-China trade agreement has been signed, it's time to focus on fundamentals. We'll get a chance to do that as corporate-earnings season really kicks into high gear with companies including Intel, American Express, Netflix, Capital One, IBM, and United Airlines scheduled to report throughout the week. As of last Friday, about 8% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported results with around 75% of them beating expectations. That and the cooling of trade tensions has 2020 off to a hot start for stocks.
Here's how different asset classes have been doing year-to-date: Here are some of the key economic events on the calendar for the week ahead:
Monday January 20
Wednesday January 22
Friday January 24
Earnings Season Continues:
Davos Gets Responsible
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS) Semiconductor and telecom equipment maker Qualcomm rose today after Citigroup upgraded its stock to a "buy" rating. Energy company Range Resources fell today after the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection ordered it to fix a natural gas well that the department says has been fouling nearby water. Logistics company Expeditors International of Washington fell after it issued disappointing earnings guidance. Word of the Day Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. In most cases, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. Volatility is often measured as either the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index.
Today in History January 17, 1920 Today in 1920 the "manufacture, sale, or transportation of intoxicating liquors," became illegal under the Volstead Act, which enforced the 18th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, starting a period known as "Prohibition." Prohibition was the culmination of advocacy by a number of groups representing what was called the "Temperance Movement." The Temperance Movement, which blamed alcohol for a host of societal ills, emerged in the 19th century, when U.S. alcohol consumption peaked at more than 3 times its current level. The movement took varying approaches combating alcohol. One prominent temperance advocate, Carry Nation, pictured above, demolished barrooms with a hatchet. Prohibition did lower alcohol consumption to a significant degree, however, it also led to spikes in violent crime in many places. This was due to the rise of organized crime, fueled by the enormous profits made through the illegal production, smuggling, and sale of alcohol. This exacerbated the mounting opposition to Prohibition, which was repealed with the ratification of the 21st amendment in 1933. Source: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/prohibition-ratified https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31741615
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Friday, January 17, 2020
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