Euro's rally accelerates today, in particular against Dollar and took out an important near term fibonacci resistance. There are various explanations on Euro's strength. Considering the strength in Swiss Franc, as well as the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, the rally could be seen a manifestation of safe haven flow. Meanwhile, comments from ECB officials so far suggest that they're not ready for more monetary stimulus yet. Actually, we can see that ECB's easing package last September as leading actions, and other central banks are now catching up. In particular, markets are pricing in an aggressive -50bps Fed cut this month, with talks of even an emergency meeting. These factors could all be in play. But we'd like to remind people that Eurozone's recovery has been fragile so far. Manufacturing remains in in recession as suggested by PMI and it will be heavily affected by coronavirus triggered supply chain disruption. The fragile recovery has been driven by domestic demand and consumption, which will be even badly affected by an Eurozone wide outbreak. As of now, there are 1704 confirmed cases in Italy, 150 cases in Germany, 130 cases in France, 120 cases in Spain. So, beware of any drastic turn in Euro. Technically, near term focus will now be on 1.1239 in EUR/USD. Decisive break there will at least confirm medium term bottoming, with prospect of bullish reversal. EUR/GBP takes out 0.8676 fibonacci level today and it's heading towards 0.8786 support turned resistance. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole fall from 0.9324 and could bring retest of this high ahead. In Europe, currently, FTRSE is up 0.21%. DAX is down -0.93%. CAC is down -0.80%. German 10-year yield is down -0.030 at -0.638. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.95%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.62%. China Shanghai SSE rose 3.15%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0178 to -0.136. |
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