Friday, July 31, 2020 1. Markets surge late to follow big tech trends 2. Alphabet showing bearish divergence 3. Gold and silver continue bullish trends Market Moves The big day for earnings came and went with big tech companies surprising analysts. Investors waited until late in the day to jump in, but when they did the result erased the effect of profit taking traders early in today's session. Even so, the big four tech companies that reported yesterday: Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL), are showing a starkly stronger price pattern than the rest of the market.
The chart below shows how these big companies, on average, are pulling away from various asset classes. This chart compares an equal-weighted portfolio of these four stocks to Invesco's Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), State Street's large cap (SPY) and mid cap (MDY) index ETFs, and iShares Russell 2000 index ETF (IWM). The big question here is just how long can this go on? Seeing investor money concentrate into a small number of stocks is usually a bad sign for bullish trends. Alphabet Showing Bearish Divergence The chart below shows just how vulnerable this stock is to losing its upward trend. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicator is shown as an example of one price-based oscillating indicator that shows a bearish divergence on this chart. In fact, most such oscillator studies will show some version of this same story. If GOOGL shares fail to regain a new high any time in the next two weeks, then the price will likely close below the trend line established since the March lows.
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Gold and Silver Continue Bullish Trends The relentless rise in stocks and commodities driven by investors hungry for outperforming returns has been nothing short of breathtaking. The chart below shows the rapid ascent of State Street's gold price index ETF (GLD). The recent ten percent gain in price is highly unusual for this commodity. It seems unlikely that this trend can continue at this pace. However, just one year ago even the Fed was saying they had no intent to change interest rates for all of 2020, and investors thought it seemed unlikely that interest rate drops were in the future. The Bottom Line Stocks started off with selling activity, but by the end of the session today were back up to where they started. Among the big tech companies that reported earnings yesterday, Alphabet seems vulnerable to being sold off. The price of gold just keeps rising, even though its pace is unusually steep for now.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Divergent Paths
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