Thursday's Headlines 1. US markets tumble as tech shares lead declines 2. 1.41M Americans file for first-time unemployment last week 3. Berkshire Hathaway raises its stake in Bank of America 4. Metal ETFs are crushing the stock market 5. The value investor blues Markets Closed
Image courtesy Fotoeventis/Getty
Markets Today U.S. markets sold off hard today as tech stocks led the slide. As they go, so go the markets, and today all sectors were pulled lower. The DJIA and the S&P 500 snapped four-day winning streaks, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 2.2%. Shares of Apple and Microsoft both fell more than 4% following Microsoft's earnings report yesterday afternoon. Microsoft reported a solid quarter, to be sure, but investors have high expectations for these highly valued companies.
Republican leaders say their version of a new stimulus bill will be released early next week, but they and their Democratic counterparts remain far apart on many details. With the end of the pandemic unemployment insurance checks coming soon, fears of a double-dip recession are starting to build, again.
Those fears were amplified by a higher-than-expected number of new U.S. unemployment claims filed in the past week. 1.41 million Americans filed for first-time claims, and as of the first week of July, 31.8 million Americans are collecting some form of unemployment. The spike in weekly claims was the first increase in 17-straight weeks since the pandemic began—a sign that the recovery has stalled amid a resurgence of the virus. Headlines:
A Metal Winning Year We've written a lot about gold's out-performance in 2020, and we've touched on the surge in silver prices of late. Silver prices surged 16% this week, alone. But we hadn't realized the extent of the performance of those metals relative to other hot asset classes. chart courtesy YCharts
SLV, the silver ETF, has now outperformed the QQQ ETF, which consists of the largest tech stocks, as well as GLD, the gold ETF, and TLT, the long-term U.S. Treasury bond ETF. In fact, all four of those ETFs have crushed the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, all year long. This may be the first time in history that those asset classes all rose higher, together, in the middle of a recession and a bear market.
Silver prices, according to commodity experts, are benefitting from both the flight to safety, just like gold, as well as hopes for an economic recovery. It is a more widely used metal for manufacturing and production, and like gold, it is a presumed store of value that investors like to hold on to when markets appear uncertain.
Every asset has its moment, and this one belongs to silver. Growth Trouncing Value It's a tough time to be a value investor. According to Bespoke Investments, in the 100 trading days through Monday, the S&P 500 Growth index was up over 14%, while the S&P 500 Value index declined 8%. That's a spread of 22.5 percentage points, the widest it has been since at least 1996.
The chart above shows the rolling 100-trading day spread between the performance of the S&P 500 Growth and Value indices going back to 1996. Prior to Monday, the record spread between the two indices was 22.1 percentage points, which was reached during the dot-com boom in Dec. 1999. Besides that period, the only time the spread was even close to current levels was in March 2009, when it topped 17 percentage points.
In other words, the last two times this happened, the market was cascading into a bear market in 1999 and about to stampede into a bull market in 2009.
We like to learn from history when we invest, but it's not very helpful given this market dynamic.
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS) Shares of Whirlpool are up by 8% after the home appliance company posted Q2 earnings results that beat analyst expectations. Similarly, Hershey's stock price rose by over 5.5% after the chocolate manufacturer released results for the second quarter that also beat estimates. Shares of technology stocks, such as Citrix Systems, Intel, Apple, and Microsoft, fell today as investors start to doubt the sustainability of the tech rally. Shares of Chipotle fell over 5% today, despite a better-than-expected earnings report yesterday. Word of the Day Value investing is an investment strategy that involves picking stocks that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic or book value. Value investors actively ferret out stocks they think the stock market is underestimating. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond to a company's long-term fundamentals. The overreaction offers an opportunity to profit by buying stocks at discounted prices—on sale. photo courtesy poemsearcher.com
Today in History July 23, 1878: Notorious bank robber, Charles E. Bowles, aka "Black Bart," robs a Wells Fargo stagecoach in California. Wearing a flour sack over his head, the armed robber stole the small safe box with less than $400 and a passenger's diamond ring and watch. When the empty box was recovered, a taunting poem signed "Black Bart" was found inside:
"Here I lay me down to sleep to wait the coming morrow, Perhaps success, perhaps defeat / And everlasting sorrow,
Yet come what will, I'll try it once, My conditions can't be worse, And if there's money in that box, 'Tis money in my purse."
Source: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/black-bart-strikes-again
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
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