Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-19-18

Euro Surges as EU Finally Approved Italian Budget, Dollar Mixed Awaiting FOMC Guidance

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-18-18 Euro Surges as EU Finally Approved Italian Budget, Dollar Mixed Awaiting FOMC Guidance Euro rises broadly today as Italy finally got its 2019 budget plan approved by the European Commission. Disciplinary actions are now avoided. Italian 10-yield yields tumbles sharply and is pressing September's low. For now, Yen follows as the second strongest. Canadian Dollar is recovering today as oil prices turned sideway after this week's sharp fall. The Loonie also pays little attention to slowing CPI reading. Sterling is the weakest one, followed by Australian Dollar. Technically, EUR/CHF's strong rise today re-affirmed the case of near term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 1.1356 resistance next and break will pave the way back to 1.1501 resistance. EUR/AUD also strengthens notably and is eyeing 1.5887 resistance. Break will resume rebound from 1.5346 to 1.6 handle next. Otherwise, EUR/USD, GBP/USD USD/CHF and USD/JPY are staying in familiar range. In other markets, FTSE is up 0.98% at the time of writing, DAX is up 0.57%% and CAC is up 0.61%. German 10 year yield is down -0.008 at 0.238. Italian 10 year yield is down -0.166 at 2.781. German-Italian spread is below 260. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.6%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.20%, China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.05%, Singapore Strait Times rose 0.43%, mixed. Full Report Here Into US session: Euro strongest as Italian budget deal made, Dollar... EU Dombrovskis confirmed budget agreement with Italy to avoid EDP Low level US and China officials clashed at WTO UK CPI dropped to 2.3%, core down to 1.8%, EUR/GBP a... Italian yield falls as government got EU approval on budget, Euro... FOMC previews and recap of September projections Asian business sentiment stays low on trade war concerns Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOJ: Loss in Communication Hinders Policy Effectiveness BOE Probably Turns More Cautious amid Brexit Uncertainty Fed Likely Hikes Rate in December, Future Path More Dovish Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1260; (P) 1.1279; (R1) 1.1301; More... EUR/CHF rises to as high as 1.1333 so far today as rebound from 1.1224 accelerates. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.1356 resistance first. Decisive break there should confirm near term reversal. In that case, further rally should be seen back to 1.1501 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1288 will turn bias neutral first. But retreat should be combined well above 1.1224 low to bring another rally. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Italian Politics Monitor: Budget Balancing Act S&P 500: Dovish Fed Hike Enough to Support US Stocks? Year ahead – Gold: Worst- & Best-Case Scenarios in 2019 Can The Fed Give Us A Late Santa Surge? BoJ: Still No Normalization In Sight, Risk Flows Crucial For Yen EURJPY Challenges 23.6% Fibonacci In Sideways Channel Four Fed Scenarios And One Market Hopes For Santa Rally Fade On Market Caution, FOMC In Focus Trade The Fed Decision Fed Unlikely To Be As Dovish As Market Pricing Implies Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Year ahead - Gold: Worst- & Best-Case Scenarios in 2019 BOJ: Loss in Communication Hinders Policy Effectiveness The Only Thing We Have To Fear… Is Fear Itself US: Economy Set To Remain Strong In 2019 2019: The Year of the Deal What to Expect From Central Bankers in 2019 Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Nov -0.10% 0.10% 23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Nov -0.49T -0.31T -0.30T -0.29T 07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Nov 0.10% -0.10% 0.30% 07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Nov 3.30% 3.20% 3.30% 09:30 GBP CPI M/M Nov 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Nov 2.30% 2.30% 2.40% 09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Nov 1.80% 1.90% 1.90% 09:30 GBP RPI M/M Nov 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Nov 3.20% 3.30% 3.30% 09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Nov -2.30% 0.60% 0.80% 09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Nov 5.60% 9.60% 10.00% 10.30% 09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Nov 0.20% -0.10% 0.30% 09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Nov 3.10% 3.10% 3.30% 09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Nov 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Nov 2.40% 2.30% 2.40% 2.50% 09:30 GBP House Price Index Y/Y Oct 2.70% 3.30% 3.50% 13:30 USD Current Account Balance (CAD) Q3 -125B -125B -101B 13:30 CAD CPI M/M Nov -0.40% -0.40% 0.30% 13:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Nov 1.70% 1.80% 2.40% 13:30 CAD CPI Core - Common Y/Y Nov 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 13:30 CAD CPI Core - Median Y/Y Nov 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 13:30 CAD CPI Core - Trim Y/Y Nov 1.90% 2.10% 2.10% 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Nov 5.20M 5.22M 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.2M 19:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.25% 2.25% 19:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.50% 2.50% 19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

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