Yen surges broadly while Australian Dollar is pressured as Asian markets start the new year with deep selloff. Hong Kong HSI is quickly down over -2.3% in initial trading. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.0% and Singapore Strait Times is down -0.48%. Japan is still on holiday. Canadian and Dollar are the relatively firmer ones but look vulnerable. European majors are steadily in range. More volatility will likely be seen as a load of economic data will be featured in the holiday shortened week. Technically, USD/JPY's decline extended to as low as 109.51 so far. The break of 109.76 support carries bearish implications and opens up further fall back to 104.62 low. EUR/JPY also breaks 125.52 support to resume recent decline towards 124.08 key support level. GBP/JPY is also heading back to 139.29 key support. Talking about the Pound, it would be noted that despite Monday's rally attempt, GBP/USD was held by 1.2811 near term resistance EUR/GBP was also kept by 0.8931 support. There is no committed buying in Sterling yet. Two more things to note. Firstly, US yield curve inversion worsened quite seriously by the end of 2018. It's clearly inverted from 1-year (2.619) to 2-year (2.504) and then 3-year (2.462). 5-year yield at 2.511 is way below 1 year yield. 6-month yield at 2.486 isn't too far away. Secondly fed funds futures are now pricing just around 2.5% chance of a Fed hike in march to 2.50-2.75%. And there's just around 11% chance of a rate hike in 1H. It looks like investors are expecting something rather ugly ahead in 2019. |
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