US stocks recovered overnight on talks that Trump is going to delay auto tariffs decision, due May 18, by up to 6-months. All major stock indices staged mild recovery. German DAX also reversed earlier losses to close higher. However, such optimism wasn't carried through to Asian session today. In particular, Nikkei quickly revised earlier gains and turned red. It's a clear sign that Japanese investors aren't buying much into the rumors. And after all, a delay is just a delay, not a resolution. Tariff threats remain for auto exporters like Germany and Japan. Developments in treasury yields provide another sign of risk aversion in the markets. US 10-year yield closed down -0.0040 at 2.379, breaking 2.4 handle firmly. With 3-month yield closed at 2.404, this most crucial part of yield curve, 3-month to 10-yield, is inverted. German 10-year yield closed at -0.094 after diving to as low as -0.131. Worries over Italy's budget is a key factor pressuring German yield and it's not something that's remotely related to US auto tariffs. Japan 10-year yield is also extending recent decline today, digging deeper in to negative territory. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is currently the weakest one for today, as unemployment rate jumped to 8-month high of 5.2%. But that was due to rise in participation rate to record high of 65.8%. It's healthy development in a strong labor market. The set of data is not bad enough to push for an RBA cut in June. New Zealand Dollar is following as second weakest, then Canadian. Yen is the strongest one for today. Euro and Sterling are in recovery. Technically, declines in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are losing some downside momentum. But there is no sign of bottoming. More decline is in favor before weekly close. A key to Yen's development would be on whether USD/JPY would take out 109.02 temporary low to resume recent fall. AUD/USD, breaks 0.6913 fibonacci but the anticipated downside acceleration hasn't happened yet. We'll keep a close eye on it. In Asia, currently, Nikkei is down -0.65%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.30%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0113 at -0.062. Overnight, DOW rose 0.45%. S&P 500 rose 0.58%. NASDAQ rose 1.13%. 10-year yield dropped -0.040 to 2.379. |
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