US stocks open slightly lower today while major European indices are trading in red. But it's too early to say if risk aversion in back. US-China trade war is the biggest risks to the global economy and there is no end insight. Instead, it's reported that US is going to extend the sanctions on Huawei to video surveillance firm Hikvision. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also indicates that there is currently no plan to travel to China to resume trade negotiations yet. On the other hand, China continues their hard line rhetoric, with Xi calling for the country to prepare for the "new Long March" to overcome "major risks and challenges. Top diplomat Wang Yi condemned that "the use of US power to suppress China's private enterprises, such as Huawei, is typical economic bullying." There is no sign of softening from both sides. In the currency markets, Swiss Franc and Yen are both broadly higher today, probably helped by weakness in stocks and yield. Though, Canadian Dollar is also strong together, as boosted by upside surprises in retail sales data. Sterling remains the weakest ones. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's PMQ did nothing to help her on the "new" Brexit bill, which was rejected by a majority of MPs. Pound was also weighed by weaker than expected CPI reading. Kiwi and Aussie follow as next weakest. Focus will turn to minutes of May 1 FOMC meeting. Back then, Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged and more importantly, chair Jerome Powell indicated there is no need to adjust monetary policy in either direction for the near term. Markets would like to dig into details of discussions that might hint on the chance of rate cuts. But based on recent comments by Fed officials, it's likely to have some strong voices for rate cut during the meeting. Fed policymakers have been generally patient and talked down the imminent need of rate cut. Technically, USD/CAD drops through 1.3376 support after the retails . But at the point, current fall is seen as part of consolidation pattern from 1.3521. Hence we'd expect strong support above 1.3274 to contain downside. GBP/USD is extending recent decline while EUR/GBP is extending recent rise. GBP/JPY could soon follow by breaking 139.54 temporary low. Selloff in USD/CHF today kept the pair well below 1.0126 resistance That also reaffirm that fall from 1.0237 is still in progress and could resume through 1.0050 temporary low soon. Currently, DOW is down -0.33%. S&P 500 is down -0.34%. NASDAQ is down -0.29%. 10-year yield is down -0.024 at 2.405. 2.4 handles looks vulnerable again. In Europe, FTSE is up -0.03%. DAX is down -0.26%. CAC is down -0.38%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0232 at -0.083 still way above -0.1 handle. Earlier in Asia:, Nikkei rose 0.05%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.18%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.49%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.00%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0057 to -0.05. |
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