Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-14-19

Yen Higher Following Weakness in Yields, Euro Mixed as Germany Avoided Recession

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-14-19 Yen Higher Following Weakness in Yields, Euro Mixed as Germany Avoided Recession Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar remain the strongest ones as Asia led risk aversion continues today. Additionally, treasury yields are back under pressure with some downside acceleration after US 10-year yield lost 1.9 while German 10-year yield lost -0.3. On the other hand, Australian Dollar remains the weakest, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Sterling is following as the third weakest after poor retail sales. Euro was mixed as Germany narrowly escaped technical recession. Technically, downside acceleration in AUD/USD affirms that case that corrective rebound from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929. Further fall is expected to retest 0.6670 low. EUR/AUD is extending the rebound from 1.5976, towards 1.6432 resistance. USD/JPY's break of 108.64 minor support is taken as the first sign of near term reversal, after failing 109.31 structural resistance. Focus is back on 107.88. EUR/JPY will now look at 119.11 minor support. Break will align the outlook with USD/JPY and target 117.07 support next. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -0.43%. DAX is down -0.46%. CAC is down -0.16%. German 10-year yield is down -0.030 at -0.327. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.76%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.93%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.16%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0241 to -0.071. Full Report Here US initial jobless claims rose to 225k, versus exp. 215k De Guindos said ECB needs wider toolkit, but monetary policy cannot... Eurozone GDP grew 0.2%, employment grew 0.1% UK retail sales dropped -0.1%, fuel the only positive contributor German GDP grew 0.1% in Q3, avoided technical recession China production, retail sales, investment all missed expectations RBNZ Bascand: The economy is somewhere near a turning point Japan GDP grow slowed to just 0.2% annualized in Q3 Australia unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, AUD/JPY completed corrective rebound Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol China Data Reveal Further Downside Risks in Economy RBNZ Unanimously Left OCR at 1%. Rate Cuts Next Yet Still... China's CPI Soared to Highest Level in Almost 8 Years; Exports... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.60; (P) 108.87; (R1) 109.09; More.. USD/JPY's break of 108.64 minor support suggests short term topping at 109.48, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, it's the first sign that whole rebound from 104.45 has completed after failing to sustain above 109.31 structure resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 107.88 support first. Break there will affirm this bearish case and target 106.48 next. On the upside, firm break of 109.48 is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Gold Finds Relief as Yields Drop US Open – China's Poultry Concession, Chinese Data Worsens, German Bottom, US Oil Inventories Drop, Gold Shines AUDUSD Held Below Downtrend Line, Lower Bollinger Band Tests Sellers GBPUSD Outlook: Directionless Mode Extends As Downbeat UK Retail Sales Had Minor Impact On Pound EUR/NOK Failure Bullish Breakout, More Potential Longs Unwinding Powell Rejects Negative Rates… Germany Dodges A Recession, But Euro Remains Skeptical Investor Optimism Waning USDJPY To Hold Between Upward-Sloping Trendlines Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports China Data Reveal Further Downside Risks in Economy China's CPI Soared to Highest Level in Almost 8 Years; Exports Improved on Tariff Exemption Brexit Monitor: Election Is An EU Referendum In Disguise – Difficult To Predict The Outcome From Polls Gaming Out U.K. Election Scenarios Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 P 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Nov 3.60% 00:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Oct -5% -3% -2% -3% 00:30 AUD Employment Change Oct -19.0K 16.2K 14.7K 12.5K 00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Oct 5.30% 5.20% 5.20% 02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Oct 7.20% 7.80% 7.80% 02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Oct 4.70% 5.50% 5.80% 02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Oct 5.20% 5.40% 5.40% 04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Sep 1.80% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 07:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Oct -0.20% 0.00% -0.30% 07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Oct -2.40% -2.10% -2.00% 09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.10% 0.20% 0.00% 09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Oct 3.10% 3.70% 3.10% 09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel M/M Oct -0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y Oct 2.70% 3.50% 3.00% 2.90% 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 10:00 EUR Employment Change Q/Q Q3 P 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% 13:30 USD PPI M/M Oct 0.40% 0.20% -0.30% 13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Oct 1.10% 0.90% 1.40% 13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Oct 0.30% 0.20% -0.30% 13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.60% 1.60% 2.00% 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) 225 K 215K 211K 13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 2B 34B 16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 7.9M

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