| Thursday's Headlines 1. US markets rally on jobs report, but gains fade 2. 4.8 million U.S. jobs added in June; unemployment at 11.1% 3. Big Tech CEOs summoned to antitrust hearings in Washington 4. Inside the June Jobs Report 5. The case for extending Unemployment Insurance 6. Gun stocks are popping Markets Closed
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 Programming Note: We will be off for the July 4th holiday weekend tomorrow and Monday, although we'll be sending an Independence Day version of the newsletter tomorrow. We will be back on Tuesday. Have a safe and enjoyable weekend.
Markets Today U.S. markets raced into the final day of the holiday-shortened trading week, following Europe and Asia with strong gains on the heels of a better-than-expected jobs report for June. Those gains mostly fizzled out by the close, as some investors may want their independence over this long weekend. Still, U.S. markets posted their best week in a month, led again by the strength of tech stocks. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high ... again.
U.S. employers delivered early fireworks in June, as job gains for the month topped 4.8 million, far higher than most forecasts. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% in May, as a mix of the rehiring of temporarily laid-off workers and those unemployed for three weeks or more were rehired back into the workforce. On the flip side, 1.48 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment claims last week, indicating that the re-opening, and subsequent re-closing of some cities across the country, led to more layoffs. That is not a good cycle at all.
July will show us if this is the pattern we can expect for the rest of the summer and 2020, for that matter. The dichotomy of the economic rebound leading to a surge in the spread of the virus is a recipe for a long and painful recovery.
Masks, please. 
Headlines:
 Inside the June Jobs Report There was plenty of good news in the June nonfarm payrolls report, to be sure. More hiring than firing is always a positive, it's just that right now we need a lot more hiring, and no firing. We know the BLS data, by definition, is incomplete. The survey relies, in part, on data from state employment offices, which have been backlogged with millions of unemployment filings for months. Still, it's worth digging into the numbers the BLS does provide, to get a better picture of the job market last month.
Unemployment by race continues to paint an uneven picture of the economy:
While hiring has picked up in the Services, Leisure & Hospitality sectors, where most Black and Hispanic workers are concentrated, it has not rebounded for higher paying jobs, according to job postings data from Indeed.com.  Fear of a Double-Dip Remember that the BLS survey is capturing the data from the middle of May through the middle of June. As such, it captures the state of the labor market before the economy was hit by the rise in virus cases in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, which has prompted a delay or reversal of some of the re-openings. This could weigh on future job growth, and it may be the pattern we see all summer: Economies reopen, workers are hired, people don't social distance and wear masks, economies close, and those recent hires are let go.  Extending the $600 Weekly Unemployment Insurance The additional $600 per week of unemployment insurance granted to laid off Americans as part of the CARES Act has been a crucial lifeline for millions of people across income classes. It has boosted the personal savings rate and likely kept millions of people out of a financial emergency. The program ends on July 31.
That weekly $600 check, according to the Economic Policy Institute, has been a huge boost to GDP, which would otherwise be much worse than it is. Many argue that the money has kept people from looking for a job because they may be earning more, and staying safe, at home. That said, the money is replacing income, and it is being spent. (Mostly at Amazon—but it still counts.)
The EPI estimated that extending the $600 UI benefits through the middle of 2021 would provide an average quarterly boost to gross domestic product of 3.7% and employment of 5.1 million workers.
If it is not extended, according to the EPI's analysis, it would, by itself, cause more job loss than was seen in either of the recessions of the early 1990s or early 2000s. It's an election year here in the U.S., so an extension is likely.  Firearm Stocks on Fire Just in time for Independence Day, the Guns & Ammo sector of the stock market is posting some eye-popping returns. The surge for the two biggest gainers, Smith & Wesson and Vista Outdoor, has really come since the end of May and beginning of June. May 25 was the day George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer, which set off a wave of protests around the country. There may be no correlation, but the timing is notable.
It's also noteworthy that firearm sales, and stocks of the companies that make them, tend to do better in an election year. We are in one of those.
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS)  It was a rare good day for oil company investors, as three of today's best performers make their money in the ground. Strong manufacturing reports out of Asia could be a sign of coming demand.  Shares of DISH fell 4.46% following the company's completed acquisition of Boost Wireless, yesterday. Cruise companies continue to sink as a return to the seas is nowhere on the horizon. Word of the Day Underemployment is a measure of employment and labor utilization in the economy that looks at how well the labor force is being utilized in terms of skills, experience, and availability to work. Labor that falls under the underemployment classification includes those workers who are highly skilled but working in low paying or low skill jobs and part-time workers who would prefer to be full-time. This is different from unemployment in that the individual is working but is not working at their full capability.  image courtesy walmart.com/history Today in History July 2, 1962: A struggling retailer from Kingfisher, Okla., opens an 18,000-sq.-ft. discount store in Rogers, Ark. His name is Sam Walton, and he calls his store Wal-Mart. Source: Sam Walton with John Huey, Sam Walton: Made in America
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Thursday, July 2, 2020
Fizzling
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