Action Insight Daily Report 11-1-18

Dollar Lifted by Strong ADP Employment, EUR/USD to Take on 1.13 Key Support

Action Insight Daily Report 11-1-18 Sterling Rides on Brexit Optimism, Look into BoE Economic Projections Sterling surged overnight on Brexit optimism and is boosted further in Asia with more Brexit-positive news. Though, for today, it's overwhelmed by Australian and New Zealand Dollar on strong risk appetite. The Pound will need to look into BoE economic projections for more inspirations. Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground broadly again, reversing some of yesterday's socks and yield supported gains. The greenback is followed by Canadian Dollar and Yen as the second and third weakest. Technically, Euro is an interesting one to watch today. EUR/USD appears to be supported by 1.1300 key level for now and recovers. However, the selloff in EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD is limiting Euro's rebound. EUR/GBP's break of 0.8868 minor support yesterday already suggests near term reversal and could bring deeper fall back to 0.8722 support. The break of 1.5984 support in EUR/AUD is even more important as it's an early indication of medium term reversal. It remains to be see, after all the movements offset each other, whether EUR/USD could defend this key 1.1300 level successfully. In other markets, DOW closed up 241.12 pts or 0.97% at 25115.76. S&P 500 gained 1.09% to 2711.74. NASDAQ added 2.01% to 7305.90. There are tentative signs of near term reversal in US stocks. Treasury yields also rose broadly after gapping up. 10-year yield rose 0.049 to 3.159. 30 year yield rose 0.046 to 3.402. In particular, 30-year yield has prospect of breaking 3.424 near term resistance to resume recent up trend, before weekly close. Asian markets are mixed though. Nikkei is currently down -0.7%. But Hong Kong HSI is up 1.84%, China Shanghai SSE is up 1.13% and Singapore Strait Times is up 1.16%. Japan 10 year JGB yield is up another 0.0051 at 0.134. Full Report Here China Caixin PMI manufacturing: Economy has not seen obvious improvement Australian manufacturing PMI dropped to 58.3, expansion to continue into 2019 SNB Jordan: Swiss among hardest hit in full-scale trade war White House Kudlow: Additional tariffs on China not set in stone Pound rally extends as UK seals Brexit deal on financial services... Sterling surges further as Raab told MPs Nov 21 is the... Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Brexit: No News is Bad News Populist Sentiment Still Evolving – Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively Italy Credit Rating – Further Downgrades are Yet to Come Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2698; (P) 1.2765; (R1) 1.2833; More... GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2692 extends higher today but it's limited below 1.2921 support turned resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 1.2921 holds, near term outlook stays cautiously bearish and another decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.2692 will target 1.2661 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3297 at 1.2237. However, break of 1.2921 should extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2661 with another rise towards 1.3297 resistance before completion. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Crude Oil Price Recoveries Remain Capped GBP/USD Bursts Higher On Brexit Breakthrough, BOE On Tap Gold Drops To Test Key Support As Stocks And Dollar Climb Pound Rises On Brexit Hope Awaits BoE Japan 225 Index Regains Some Ground after Rebound on 20780 Bank Of England To Stand Pat, Revised Projections Eyed Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports The Natural Unemployment Rate and Fed Policy Brexit: No News is Bad News Populist Sentiment Still Evolving - Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively Italy Credit Rating - Further Downgrades are Yet to Come The Midterm Elections and Our Economic Outlook Democrats Might Regain Control of House, And Then? US Election Monitor #4: Trump Proposes New Tax Cuts But Unlikely to Change Momentum So Close to Election Day US Election Monitor #3: Standstill as US Criticises China Trade Policy Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Sep -1.50% 7.80% 6.80% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep P -1.10% -0.20% 0.20% 00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Oct -37.1 -38.3 00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Oct -10 -10 -9 00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct -0.20% 0.20% 00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q3 1.90% 1.90% 2.10% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 1.80% 1.90% 1.90% 1.80% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 1.70% 1.90% 1.90% 1.70% 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.2 50.6 50.8 01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Oct 53.9 54.9 54.9 03:08 JPY BOJ Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Oct 43 43.5 43.4 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Sep -1.50% -0.50% 1.60% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep 8.10% 8.10% 8.10% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct 2.20% 2.20% 2.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 227K 190K 230K 218K 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Sep 0.10% 0.00% -0.50% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep -0.90% -0.50% -4.60% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.20% 12:30 CAD GDP Y/Y Aug 2.50% 2.40% 2.40% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q3 0.80% 0.80% 0.60% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Oct 60.5 60.4 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.3M

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ALL AGLOW!

Wednesday, October 31, 2018 - Insight after the bell from Investopedia's Editor in Chief

The Market Sum | INVESTOPEDIA Insight after the bell By Caleb Silver, Editor in Chief Wednesday's headlines- 1- All Aglow 2- Bitcoin turns 10 3- Chart of the day: Bitcoin at 10! The journey so far... Markets Close Dow 25,115.76 +0.97% S&P 2,711.73 +1.08% Nasdaq 7,305.90 +2.01% VIX 21.13 -9.08% Bitcoin* 6,345.27 +0.70% EUR/USD* 1.1328 0.00% *Currency markets and Bitcoin trade 24 hours, the figures here indicate movements between 9am and 4pm ET   Image courtesy: Investopedia reader Todd Houge and his son 1- All Aglow Finally, some good news to end this turbulent month. This two-day rally to end Red October added a good 800 points to the DJIA and may have settled some nerves in the short term. This is not to say that the volatility and wicked sell-offs are behind us. They are likely not. Midterm elections are next week, the Fed is likely to raise rates at its next meeting in November, the trade war is far from over and there are many other landmines out there that can be triggered at any moment. Here is how the markets ended up in October: DJIA: -5.08% S&P 500: -6.94% Nasdaq: -9.2% The good news we are talking about, however, is wage increases!  Real wages increased for the first time since 2009, according to the Labor Dept. Workers in nearly all sectors tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics saw increases in the past quarter of 3.1 percent, on average. Private companies also reported a big uptick in hiring, adding 227,000 workers to their payrolls in the past week. Read the Labor Dept's release on wages and see if it matches up with what you are seeing in your company or industry. Why it Matters: Wage increases were the missing ingredient since the U.S. economic recovery began in 2009. The stock market was rising (with more than a little help from the Fed), unemployment was falling, and the economy was growing -  but wages were stuck. With inflation creeping higher and rising interest rates, there was plenty of concern that the economy was overheating and consumers were not going to keep up. Today's report assuaged those concerns - for now - but economists and investors will need to see proof that this trend has legs. Given that companies are already benefiting from lower taxes, 2019 will be a real test of whether they will continue to reward their employees with their largesse. What's next: The non-farm payrolls report for October will be released Friday, and economists estimate that 190,000 jobs were added in the month. Hurricane Florence may have impacted that number, but don't pay too much attention to the noise. Focus on the trend. If the number comes in higher than expected and unemployment remains at 3.7 percent, or ticks even lower, it will be a positive sign that the U.S. economy is humming along at the right speed. The FOMC will meet next on November 7-8 and most people expect another rate hike. That may have already been priced into the market, as they say. It's what the Fed says at that meeting about future increases that matters most. More on this: P.S. We asked Schwab's top investment strategists, Liz Ann Sonders, Jeff Kleintop and Kathy Jones, whether the Federal Reserve has gone too far in raising rates. Listen to what they had to say. They know these things as they help steer about $1.6 trillion in assets for Schwab. Has the Fed Gone Too Far #2 Bitcoin turns 10 Ten years ago, so the story goes, an entity known as Satoshi Nakamoto released a whitepaper called "Bitcoin: A peer to peer Electronic Cash System". In simple terms, it was the magna carta that launched a version of electronic payments that could be sent from one person or entity to another without going through a financial institution. Born out of the wreckage of the financial crisis, Bitcoin and the Blockchain ledger it lived on, seemed to be the exact alternative to a broken financial system that brought the financial world to its knees. We've written hundreds of articles about it, the blockchain, regulations and just about everything you can think of touching the subject. You can find most of that here or just search for it on our site. We even created two online video courses for people who wanted to learn more about cryptocurrency and invest in it in some way. Find those here. While a small group of early adopters, enthusiasts and government entities traded Bitcoin and accumulated it, it didn't break into the mainstream investor consciousness until the end of 2016. About a year ago, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were on a meteoric rise, propelled by unbridled crypto enthusiasts, day traders, Reddit chat rooms, celebrity tokens and investors who believed the hype despite their lack of understanding. Everyone from DJ Khaled to Paris Hilton endorsed a token or backed an Initial Coin Offering for which they were likely paid in real dollars. When the ball dropped on Times Square signifying the beginning of 2018, the bottom seemed to fall out completely. Today, Bitcoin trades 3 percent lower than it did a year ago and many other tokens have been wiped off the map completely. No doubt about it, Bitcoin is a survivor. We have no idea where it will trade, if it will trade, or what it will look like in one month, one year or ten, but it is the original and has stood the test of time, so far. We won't get into the entire history of the rise and fall of Bitcoin and its ilk, but these will bring you up to speed: How Does Bitcoin Mining Work? Bitcoin's 10th Birthday: Was the Nakamoto White Paper Right? Three People Who Were Supposedly Bitcoin Founder Satoshi Nakamoto For our Chart of the Day, we offer you Bitcoin's rise, fall and aftermath, along with the key events that impacted its price. Note the lack of volatility in the past 7 months compared to the heart attack of the 6 months prior. Happy Halloween! Chart of the day: Bitcoin at 10! The journey so far...     Other headlines: 8 Quality Stocks To Buy After 'Overdone' October Sell-Off Intel's Breakout Seen Boosting Stock 9% Halloween's Effect on the Economy   How can we improve the new Market Sum? Tell us at marketsum@investopedia.com   Enjoy the Market Sum?  Share it with a friend.   Click to Share   Or share the link below to invite friends to sign up. http://link.investopedia.com/join/53o/00-fwd-marketsum   CONNECT WITH INVESTOPEDIA   Email sent to:  mondemand.forex@blogger.com If you wish to unsubscribe, please click here, or manage subscriptions   114 West 41st St, floor 8 New York NY 10036 © 2018, Investopedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved | Privacy Policy