Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-31-18

Dollar Lifted by Strong ADP Employment, EUR/USD to Take on 1.13 Key Support

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-31-18 Dollar Lifted by Strong ADP Employment, EUR/USD to Take on 1.13 Key Support Dollar is trading broadly higher today. In particular, new buying emerges after stronger than expected ADP employment report. USD/CHF breaches 1.0067 key resistance. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is also closing in on 1.1300 key support. Nonetheless, Dollar is overwhelmed by Sterling, which is the strongest one today. There is practically no special news regarding the Pound. However, as it's rather oversold, traders could be lightening up their position ahead of tomorrow's BoE Super Thursday. Euro receives little support from inflation data, which showed acceleration in October. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are the weakest ones. Technically, first focus will be on whether USD/CHF can sustain above 1.0067. If that happens, next target will be key resistance level at 1.0342. Similar, EUR/USD will be watched on whether it could break through 1.1300 key support decisively to resume the medium term down trend from 1.2555. GBP/USD's recovery is just a recovery for now. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2921 resistance holds, and 1.2661 low should at least be tested. In other markets, major European stock indices are trading in black at the time of writing. FTSE is up 1.7%, DAX up 1.32% and CAC is up 2.21%. German 10 year yield is up 0.0164 at 0.386. Italian 10 year yield is down -0.063 at 3.408. German-Italian spread is still larger than 300. Major Asian indices also closed higher. Nikkei rose 2.16%, Hong Kong HSI rose 1.60%, China SSE rose 1.35%, Singapore Strait Times rose 1.76%. Japan 10 year JGB yield closed up 0.0081 at 0.13. Gold dips notably today and is now pressing 1215. Overall, there are signs of improvements in sentiments. Full Report Here Canada GDP grew 0.1%, oil and gas extraction, finance, insurance led US ADP employment grew 227k, significant gains across all industries Into US session: Sterling strikes back, Dollar firm after ADP ECB Hansson talks down Q3 GDP slow down Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.2%, core up to 1.1%, unemployment rate... Gold selloff accelerates, corrective rise from 1160.36 likely completed BoJ stands pat, lowers inflation forecasts once again Australia CPI slowed to 1.9% yoy in Q3, AUD/USD dips briefly New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -37.1, next RBNZ move... Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Brexit: No News is Bad News Populist Sentiment Still Evolving – Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively Italy Credit Rating – Further Downgrades are Yet to Come Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1358; (R1) 1.1375; More.... EUR/USD's break of 1.1335 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1814. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1300 key support level. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 1.1421 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1621 resistance instead. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings USD/JPY Remains Supported Amid Growing BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence Euro Slips To 2 ½-Month Lows Despite Encouraging Inflation Signs, Stocks Bounce Higher Smart Money Spooked During October Bank Of England To Stand Pat, Revised Projections Eyed BOJ Remains On Hold As JPY Weakens What Worries Investors China Notes: Weak Chinese PMI Points To Further Slowdown In Q4 EURJPY Turns Slightly Positive In Short-Term But Stuck Below Downtrend Line Oil Correction Over? Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Populist Sentiment Still Evolving - Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively Italy Credit Rating - Further Downgrades are Yet to Come The Midterm Elections and Our Economic Outlook Democrats Might Regain Control of House, And Then? US Election Monitor #4: Trump Proposes New Tax Cuts But Unlikely to Change Momentum So Close to Election Day US Election Monitor #3: Standstill as US Criticises China Trade Policy Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Sep -1.50% 7.80% 6.80% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep P -1.10% -0.20% 0.20% 00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Oct -37.1 -38.3 00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Oct -10 -10 -9 00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct -0.20% 0.20% 00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q3 1.90% 1.90% 2.10% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 1.80% 1.90% 1.90% 1.80% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 00:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 1.70% 1.90% 1.90% 1.70% 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.2 50.6 50.8 01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Oct 53.9 54.9 54.9 03:08 JPY BOJ Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Oct 43 43.5 43.4 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Sep -1.50% -0.50% 1.60% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep 8.10% 8.10% 8.10% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct 2.20% 2.20% 2.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 227K 190K 230K 218K 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Sep 0.10% 0.00% -0.50% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep -0.90% -0.50% -4.60% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.20% 12:30 CAD GDP Y/Y Aug 2.50% 2.40% 2.40% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q3 0.80% 0.80% 0.60% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Oct 60.5 60.4 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.3M

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