Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-17-18

Dollar Higher But More Needed to Prove Itself, Sterling Weak as CPI Miss

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-17-18 Dollar Higher But More Needed to Prove Itself, Sterling Weak as CPI Miss Dollar and Yen trade broadly higher in early US session as investors turn cautious again. Minutes of September FOMC meeting where there was another 25bps hike would catch much attention. But we're not expecting anything dramatic from there. All the markets need to know should have been delivered in the economic projections and press conference already. Sterling is trading as the weakest one for today after weaker than expected consumer inflation data. Also, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face the "moment of truth" in the EU summit in Brussels today. For now, it's uncertain whether there would be enough progress even to go on with the unscheduled November Brexit summit. The Pound could suffers some more volatility as Brexit headlines hit the wire. Euro is trading as the second weakest one for now. Technically, EUR/USD's break of 1.1534 minor support is taken as a sign that recent consolidation is finally over. Deeper fall is now in favor to retest 1.1431 low. But for now, Dollar's strength is far from being certain. We'd have to see break of 0.9954 resistance in USD/CHF, 1.3081 minor support in GBP/USD and 0.7098 minor support in AUD/USD to give us more confidence. Full Report Here Into US session: Dollar and Yen high as markets might finally... EU Malmstrom: US not shown any big interest in trade negotiation... Sterling falls as UK CPI slowed to 2.4%, missed expectation of... USTR Lighthizer singles out automobiles, agriculture and services for trade talk... RBA Debelle: Unemployment rate might drop further before material rise in... Fed Daly favors gradual pace of monetary policy normalization Trump called Fed his biggest threat but added he's not blaming... EU Tusk: No optimism on tomorrow's summit on Brexit Quick Comments Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Bulls Triumphed as Greenback Remained... CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT for Natural Gas Narrows... Conditions Still in Place for Further Dollar Rally Despite Trump's Crazy... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1552; (P) 1.1587; (R1) 1.1609; More..... EUR/USD's break of 1.1534 minor support argues that corrective rebound from 1.1431 has completed at 1.1621 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Break of 1.1431 will resume whole decline from 1.1814 and target a test on 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1621 will delay the bearish case and bring another rebound. But then, upside should be limited by 1.1779/1814 resistance zone to bring down trend resumption eventually. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Euro Stoxx 50 Index Remains Below Moving Averages Despite Upside Correction EURUSD Outlook: Rise in Italian Bonds Pushes Euro Below Daily Cloud Pound Faces Headwinds as Inflation Disappoints; FOMC Meeting Minutes Awaited AUDUSD Edges Lower Below Moving Averages, Outlook Still Strongly Bearish Asia Market Closing View: Fumbling Into The EU Summit Stocks Ease Back After Turnaround Tuesday Fed Minutes Eyed As Markets Recover DAX Ready To Surge Again Oil Up But For How Long? Pound Shaky Ahead Of EU Summit, FOMC Minutes In Focus NZDUSD Downside Correction Ahead Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Avoiding What Might Have Been: The Canadian Implications of USMCA What Do the IMF's Trade Concerns Imply for FX Markets? Who is a Currency Manipulator? China Eases Monetary Policy Further, Intervening to Avoid Sharp Fall in Renminbi US Election Monitor #2: Kavanaugh Confirmation Not Likely to Affect the Senate Battle Democrats Might Regain Control of House, And Then? Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (USD) Aug 131.8B 50.3B 74.8B 66.7B 23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 08:30 GBP CPI M/M Sep 0.10% 0.50% 0.70% 08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Sep 2.40% 2.80% 2.70% 08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Sep 1.90% 1.80% 2.10% 08:30 GBP RPI M/M Sep 0.00% 0.20% 0.90% 08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Sep 3.30% 3.20% 3.50% 08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Sep 1.30% 0.20% 0.50% 1.20% 08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Sep 10.30% 5.70% 8.70% 9.40% 08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Sep 0.40% 0.20% 0.20% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Sep 3.10% 2.90% 2.90% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep 2.40% 2.10% 2.10% 2.20% 08:30 GBP House Price Index Y/Y Aug 3.20% 3.50% 3.10% 3.40% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Sep 0.50% 0.20% 0.20% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep F 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep F 0.90% 1.00% 0.90% 12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Aug -0.40% -0.10% 0.90% 1.20% 12:30 USD Housing Starts Sep 1.20M 1.21M 1.28M 1.27M 12:30 USD Building Permits Sep 1.24M 1.28M 1.25M 1.25M 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M 6.0M 18:00 USD FOMC Minutes

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