Dollar tumbled sharply overnight as FOMC economic projected turned out to be much more dovish than expected. Selling continues today, in particular against the Japanese Yen, which is lifted broadly on after the sharp decline in US treasury yields, in response to FOMC. While stock markets are just mixed, risks are piling quickly. Firstly, Fed's dovishness now pushed the most reliable part of the yield curve on the brink of indicating recession. Secondly, Trump hinted that he's going to extend the ongoing trade war with China even if the latter agrees to a trade deal. The damage to the world economy by the two countries could extend for a long-period of time. Staying in the currency markets, Canadian Dollar is the second weakest for today even though WTI crude oil surged through 60 handle on sharp decline in oil inventory. New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one following solid rebound in Q4 GDP. Australian Dollar follows as unemployment rate dropped to lowest since 2011. Sterling is mixed for today even though it's the weakest one for the week. EU summit in Brussels will be watched for formal responses to UK's request for Article 50 extension. Technically, EUR/USD's break of 1.1419 resistance is taken as the first sign of medium term bottoming. Focus will now turn to 1.1569 resistance in near term. Similarly, USD/CHF break of 0.9926 support also suggests medium term topping. Focus will turn to 0.9716 support. USD/JPY will take on 110.35 key support to confirm near term bearish reversal too. In Asia, Japan is on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.17%. China SSE is up 0.94% at 3119, back above 3100 handle. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.14%. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.55%. S&P 500 dropped -0.29%. But NASDAQ rose 0.06%. 10-year yield dropped -0.079 to 2.525. 30-year yield dropped -0.053 to 2.975, lost 3% handle. |
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