Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-22-19

Euro Dives as German Data Prompts Recession Fear, 10-Year Bund Yield Turned Negative

Action Insight Daily Report 3-22-19 Euro Dives as German Data Prompts Recession Fear, 10-Year Bund Yield Turned Negative Fears of global recession intensify after shockingly poor German manufacturing data. Major European indices are all trading in red while DOW is down more than 100 pts at initial trading. More importantly, German 10-year bund yield turns negative for the first time since 2016. The most accurate indicator of US recession, 3-month to 10-year US yield curve, inverts, as 10-year yield drops through 2.5 handle. Risk aversion will likely be a major theme before weekly close. In the currency markets, Euro is the weakest one today as selloff accelerates after German data. Canadian Dollar is the second weakest, suffering some pressure after poor retail sales data. Swiss Franc is the third weakest, as dragged down by Euro. Yen is the strongest one today so far on risk aversion naturally. Sterling is the second strongest for today, as supported by the two extra week of Brexit lifeline granted by EU. Dollar is the third strongest, mainly thanks to weakness elsewhere. In Europe, FTSE is down -1.26%. DAX is down -0.81%. CAC is down -1.34%. German 10-year bund yield is down -0.050 at -0.006. It hit as high as 1.2 just earlier this week. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.09%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.14%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.037 to -0.072. Full Report Here Trump said he won't drop auto tariffs to zero even if... Canadian retail sales dropped -0.3%, CPI ticked up to 1.5% Into US session: Recession fears intensify, US yield curve inversion, German... Euro and DAX fall on terrible German manufacturing data, bund yield... Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped to 47.6, 71-month low with sharp contraction... Germany PMI manufacturing dived to 44.7, entrenched downturn with steepest contraction... France PMIs: Contraction in both manufacturing and services Japan PMI manufacturing unchanged at 48.9, sustained downturn Japan CPI core slowed to 0.7% yoy, drifting away from BoJ's... EU approved short Brexit extension, cliff edge delayed to April 12 Stop Brexit petition breaks 1M, Leadsom said there's case to act... IMF supports Fed's pause in rate hikes Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOE Left Policy Unchanged. Next Move Depends on Brexit Outcome SNB Downgraded Inflation Forecast for Switzerland, Pledged to Curb Franc's Strength Fed Turns Even More Dovish in March – Downgrading Economic Outlook,... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1329; (P) 1.1384; (R1) 1.1429; More..... EUR/USD's sharp decline today and break of 1.1335 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.1176 has completed at 1.1148. The development dampened prior bullish view. Intraday bias turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1176 low first. On the upside, break of 1.1448 will extend the rebound to 1.1514/1569 resistance zone first. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Canada: Retail Spending Starts 2019 on the Back Foot Canadian Consumer Price Inflation Edges Up to 1.5% in February Terrible German PMI Data Sinks Global Stocks and Euro EU Stocks Could Rebound Despite Recession Concerns Flash Comment: Growing Manufacturing Abyss Challenges Eurozone Outlook GBPJPY Loses Ground, Neutral In Near Term EURGBP Runs To 1-Month Highs, Tests Upper Bollinger Band Dollar Supported By Risk Aversion Trading Brexit Extended As Poor PMIs Raise Eurozone Recession Concerns Dollar Roars Back, Euro Crumbles On Soft PMIs Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Fed Turns Even More Dovish in March - Downgrading Economic Outlook, Pausing Rate Hike Cycle, Ending Balance Sheet Reduction Fed Keeps Rates Steady as the Dots Fall Northern Exposure: FOMC in a Good Place FOMC Thinks It Will Be On Hold Throughout 2019 Australian Employment: A February Pause Before We See a New Direction in 2019 A Not So Bad Look, NZ GDP, December Quarter 2018 Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Feb 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% 00:30 JPY PMI Manufacturing Mar P 48.9 49.2 48.9 08:15 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Mar P 49.8 51.4 51.5 08:15 EUR France Services PMI Mar P 48.7 50.6 50.2 08:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar P 44.7 48 47.6 08:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Mar P 54.9 54.8 55.3 09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P 47.6 49.5 49.3 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Mar P 52.7 52.7 52.8 09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan 36.8B 17.3B 16.2B 12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.30% 0.40% -0.10% -0.30% 12:30 CAD Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Jan 0.10% 0.10% -0.50% -0.80% 12:30 CAD CPI M/M Feb 0.70% 0.60% 0.10% 12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Feb 1.50% 1.40% 1.40% 12:30 CAD CPI Core - Common Y/Y Feb 1.80% 1.80% 1.90% 12:30 CAD CPI Core - Median Y/Y Feb 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 12:30 CAD CPI Core - Trim Y/Y Feb 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% 13:45 USD US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 53.6 53 13:45 USD US Services PMI Mar P 55.8 56 14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories M/M Jan 0.10% 1.10% 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 5.10M 4.94M

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