Risk aversion remains the dominant theme in the global financial markets on trade war threats. In particular, German 10-year yield turns negative again on safe haven flows. Based on currently available information, the trigger for Trump's escalation was China's pull back on its commitments in the negotiation progress. And it's a general consensus in the the trade team that tariffs is the only way to go if no deal could be sealed this week. Hence, even though Chinese Vice Premier Liu travel to the US on May 9-10, it's unsure what he could do to bring negotiations back on track and avert the new tariffs on Friday. In the currency markets, Yen is currently the strongest one, picking up steam on falling stocks and yields. Australian Dollar is lucky as the second strongest, thanks to RBA standing pat. But it's post RBA rally has been limited since the central bank was actually laying the ground work for rate cuts down the road, subject to developments in the job markets. Dollar is the third strongest. Sterling and Swiss Franc are the weakest ones. Technically, GBP/JPY's break of 144.80 minor support now puts focus back to 143.72 key support. Decisive break there will indicate near term bearish reversal. EUR/GBP's break of 0.8568 now suggests that at least another recovery would be seen before larger down trend resumes through 0.8472 key support. EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD are staying in familiar range. But Dollar seems to be heading for a test on resistance levels in these pairs soon. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -1.08%. DAX is down -0.61%. CAC is down -0.80%. German 10-year yield is down -0.040 at -0.030, turns negative again. Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.52%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.69%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.67%. Japan remains on holiday. |
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