Dollar remains generally firm in quiet Asian markets today. The greenback continues to be supported by expectation that FOMC won't deliver any "insurance" rate cut this week. Instead, Fed policy makers will look at the upcoming developments before making a decision, in particular the result of G20 summit regarding US China trade war. Also, market pricing of as much as three insurances cuts, or 75bps, by the end of the year is questioned by Goldman Sachs as "overly hasty". We agree that the hurdle for such amount of policy easing is much higher than widely believed. Staying in the currency markets, commodity currencies recover generally, following mild strengthen in Asian session. But upside of Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian are all rather limited. Swiss Franc is currently the weakest one as worries over geopolitical tensions faded mildly. Euro is the second weakest. Technically, AUD/USD recovers mildly today, after breaching 0.6864 last week. Outlook is unchanged as further decline is still expected through 0.6864 decisively to 0.6722 low. Similarly, despite today's mildly recovery, further decline is expected in GBP/JPY, decisively, through 136.55 to 131.51 low. A focus today is whether EUR/USD or GBP/USD would hit recent low at 1.1107 and 1.2559 respectively first. In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.03%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.48%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.04%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.27%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0041 at -0.12. |
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