Market sentiments were given two strong boosts yesterday, first by ECB's indication of monetary stimulus ahead, then by renewed optimism of US-China trade negotiations. Positive sentiments carried forward to Asian session, with strong rally seen in major indices. Though, reactions in currency markets are relatively "refrained" as traders are holding their bets ahead of FOMC rate decision. Two Ps - Patience and Projections - will guide the forex markets ahead. For now, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one for the week so far, but it's mainly consolidating recent decline. Yen is the second strongest, thanks to sharp fall in major treasury yields, in particular with German 10-year yield hitting new record low. But then, Yen's rally is capped by strong risk appetite. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one, as Boris Johnson is stepping closer to become UK Prime Minister. Euro is the second weakest on Dovish ECB. Should Fed really delivers something dovish today, there are a few technically levels to watch to confirm weakness in Dollar. 107.81 support in USD/JPY is probably the most important level to watch to gauge Dollar weakness. Break will resume recent fall from 112.40. Similarly, break of 0.9925 minor support in USD/CHF and 1.1247 resistance in EUR/USD will also show Dollar weakness too. Break of 1.3328 minor support in USD/CAD could also suggests completion of recovery from 1.3239. But that might be due to Canadian CPI or oil inventory data. In Asia, Nikkei closed up 1.72%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.30%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.96%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0068 at -0.136. Overnight, DOW rose 1.35%. S&P 500 rose 0.97%. NASDAQ rose 1.39%. 10-year yield dropped -0.026 to 2.060. |
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