Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-20-19

Middle East Tension Overshadows Dovish Central Banks, Swiss Franc and Canadian Steal the Show

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-20-19 Middle East Tension Overshadows Dovish Central Banks, Swiss Franc and Canadian Steal the Show Dollar remains broadly weak, suffering heavy selling pressure after Fed turned dovish yesterday and opened the door for rate cut. Though, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar steal the show today on escalating middle tensions. WTI crude oil rises over 4% on news that a US drone was shot down by Iran, (in international airspace according to US, over southern Iran according to Iran). Loonie, also firm on strong inflation reading, was give further lift by oil prices. Fears over military confrontation military confrontation drove safe haven flow into Franc. Staying in the currency markets, Sterling follows Dollar as second weakest after BoE toned down growth outlook a bit after keeping interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. Yen is the third weakest, mainly due to strong rally in stocks. Though, we might see a come back in Yen any time should major treasury yields drop further. New Zealand Dollar is the third strongest, with help from GDP data. Technically, USD/CHF's break of 0.9854 support confirms resumption of recent fall from 1.0237 towards 0.9716 support next. EUR/CHF's break of 1.1119 indicates resumption of fall from 1.1476 and larger down trend from 1.2004. USD/CAD's decline is accelerating towards 1.3068 key support next. EUR/CAD also breaks 1.4877 support for 1.4759 low. EUR/GBP recovers ahead of 0.8871 minor support, keeping Euro's upper ahead against Sterling for now. In other markets, S&P 500 opens sharply higher by 0.9% and would very likely take on record high of 2954.13 soon. US 10-year yield is currently down -0.026 at 1.999, below 2% handle. In Europe, FTSE is up 0.68%. DAX is up 0.94%. CAC is up 0.75%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0333 at -0.319. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.60%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.23%. China Shanghai SSE rose 2.38%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.80%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0313 to -0.166. Full Report Here US initial jobless claims dropped to 216k, Philly Fed outlook dropped... WTI oil surges on concerns of US-Iran military conflicts China insists core concerns must be resolved before trade agreement with... BoE stands pat, warns of intensifying trade tensions and increased likelihood... Gold accelerates through 1380 key resistance, targeting 1450/80 next UK retail sales dropped -0.5% in May, ex-auto fuel dropped -0.3% China media: Xi-Trump meeting just the start of new negotiation phase RBA Lowe: Not unrealistic to expect more rate cut New Zealand GDP grew 0.6% in Q1, weak details keeps RBNZ... BoJ warns of significant downside risks concerning overseas economies Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol FOMC Review – Divided Fed Signals Rate Cut This Year Still... US Crude Oil Inventory Fell For First Time in Three Weeks RBA Minutes Indicate More Rate Cuts In Coming Months Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9899; (P) 0.9958; (R1) 0.9999; More... USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.9830 so far today and break of 0.9854 support confirms resumption of fall from 1.0237. Rejection by 55 day was also a clear near term bearish signal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9716 support next. On the upside, break of 0.9897 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 1.0014 resistance to bring fall resumption. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Fed Aftermath; Norway Hikes; BOE Keeps Rates Steady BoE Less Hawkish Than Expected Featured Trade: EUR/GBP Under Downside Pressure As BoE Looms Middle Eastern Tensions & Dovish Fed Lifts Oil 3% GBPJPY Could Recoup Some Losses In Short Term Eurozone PMIs In Spotlight After Draghi's 'Additional Stimulus' Comments Powell Has The Markets' Back Leadership Race Overshadows BoE Fed Confirms Rate Cuts Loom, Dollar Crumbles Gold Explodes To 5-Year High Post-FOMC Fed Ready To Pull The Trigger Northern Exposure: FOMC Perceive Clear And Present Risk FOMC Review: Fed As Dovish It Could Be Without Cutting Rates Already FOMC Signals Rate Cuts Ahead Fed Keeps Rates Steady, But Majority of Members See Cuts ahead Fed Policymakers Losing Patience Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports FOMC Review - Divided Fed Signals Rate Cut This Year Still Likely Fed Ready To Pull The Trigger FOMC Signals Rate Cuts Ahead FOMC Review: Fed As Dovish It Could Be Without Cutting Rates Already Making Substantial Changes To Our ECB Views New ECB Call - Rate Cut and Restart of QE China - Trade War Puts Recovery at Risk Japan - Increasingly Dependent on Global Recovery by the Day Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 01:30 AUD RBA Bulletin 02:45 JPY BOJ Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 05:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr 0.90% 0.70% -0.40% -0.30% 06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) May 3.41B 2.87B 2.29B 08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M May -0.30% -0.50% -0.20% -0.30% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y May 2.20% 2.40% 4.90% 4.70% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M May -0.50% -0.50% 0.00% -0.10% 08:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y May 2.30% 2.70% 5.20% 5.10% 11:00 GBP BoE Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 11:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target Jun 635B 435B 435B 11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9 11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9 12:30 USD Current Account (USD) Q1 -130.4B -125B -134B -143.9B 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 15) 216K 220K 222K 12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jun 0.3 10.4 16.6 14:00 USD Leading Index May 0.10% 0.20% 14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun A -6.5 -6.5 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 102B

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