Action Insight Daily Report 7-31-19

Sterling Selloff Continues as No-Deal Brexit Risks Intensify

Action Insight Daily Report 7-31-19 Dollar Weakens Mildly as Focus Turns to FOMC Rate Cut Dollar trading generally lower today as markets await Fed's highly anticipated rate cut. Though, the greenback is just the second weakest. New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing one for today so far on deteriorating business confidence. Swiss Franc is the third weakest as markets turned mixed. Australian Dollar is lifted by slightly higher CPI reading as well as China manufacturing PMI. Yet, there is no turnaround in the Aussie yet. Canadian Dollar follows as the second strongest, then Sterling. The Pound is paring some losses but no-deal Brexit fear will continue to weigh. Technically, Dollar pairs will be the major focuses today. In particular, EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1107 key low. USD/CHF is held below 0.9951 resistance. USD/JPY also stays below 108.99 resistance. EUR/USD's support has to be taken out firmly to confirm Dollar buying, better accompanies by break of resistances in USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Elsewhere, in Asian, Nikkei dropped -0.8%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.31%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.72%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0033 at -0.154. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.09%. S&P 500 dropped -0.26%. NASDAQ dropped -0.24%. 10-year yield rose 0.006 to 2.061. Full Report Here Dollar softens ahead Fed’s rate cut, some previews Australia CPI accelerated to 1.6% on automotive fuel prices ANZ business confidence dropped to -44.3, two more RBNZ cuts expected... China PMI manufacturing rose to 49.7, foundation for stabilization still needs... UK Johnson: Ready for no-deal Brexit if EU can’t compromise, it’s... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOE Preview – Standing On Sideline and Sending More Neutral... FOMC Preview – Expecting -25 bps Cut From a Divided Fed CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Raised Bets for Higher Precious... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1122; (P) 1.1136 (R1) 1.1160; More..... EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.1101 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another recovery could be seen. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1282 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 1.1107 low will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. Though, firm break of 1.1282 will bring stronger rise to 1.1412 resistance. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Asian Equities Recoil At Trump’s Confrontational Tone Around US-China Trade Imbalance Focus On Fed’s Historical Action Aussie Higher As China PMI Beats Estimate Australia Q2 Inflation – Some Pass-Through from Weaker AUD but Housing Anchors Inflation Below the Band EUR/USD Correcting Losses, USD/JPY Remains In Uptrend Gold Price Remains In Strong Uptrend Above $1,400 FOMC Preview: One (Or Two) And Done? Was the Fed’s Rate Hike in December a “Policy Mistake”? BoE Meets; Spotlight on Forecasts as Risk of No-Deal Brexit Jumps Fed Rate Decision: One Cut at a Time ECB Monetary Easing Warranted, Flash GDP Growth and Inflation Eyed Next Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Brexit Monitor: There is Always a But Brexit Update - New PM, Old Challenge RBNZ: OCR Limbo... How LowCan It Go? Japan- Korea Trade Tensions - Removal of Preferential Treatment to Korea Signals Trade Tension Should Escalate RBA to Cut Cash Rate to 0.75% in October & to 0.50% in February A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jul -11 -13 -13 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jul -0.10% -0.10% 1:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Jul -44.3 -38.1 1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.7 49.6 49.4 1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Jul 53.7 54 54.2 1:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.50% 0.00% 1:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.60% 1.50% 1.30% 1:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 1:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q2 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% 1:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 1:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q2 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.40% 1:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Jun 0.10% 0.30% 0.20% 5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun 0.3% -2.20% -8.70% 5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jul 37.8 38.5 38.7 6:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jun 3.50% 0.50% -0.60% 7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul 2K -1K 7:55 EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate Jul 5.00% 5.00% 9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 7.50% 7.50% 9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.20% 0.40% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jul A 1.00% 1.10% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul 1.10% 1.20% 10:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% 0.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 150K 102K 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.70% 0.70% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M May 0.10% 0.30% 12:30 CAD GDP Y/Y May 1.30% 1.50% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jun 0.10% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jun -2.30% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 51.5 49.7 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -10.8M 18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.25% 2.50% 18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.00% 2.25% 18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

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