Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-31-19

Dollar Shrugs Solid ADP Report as Fed Awaited

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-31-19 Dollar Shrugs Solid ADP Report as Fed Awaited Dollar continues to trade with a soft tone in early US session. Job data from US is slightly better than expected. US-China trade negotiations concluded in Shanghai without any concrete progress. But traders' minds remain on FOMC rate cut later today. For now, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, weighed down by poor business confidence. Euro is the second weakest as CPI slowed further in July. Dollar is just the third weakest. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the strongest, after CPI and China data, followed by Sterling. Technically, there is no clear development in the markets today. Sterling's decline slowed a bit and should have turned into consolidations. But there is no sign of bottoming in the Pound. 1.1107 support remains the key for Dollar to over in rally attempts. Firm break of this key support is needed to confirm commitment of Dollar buying USD/CAD is eyeing 1.3116 minor support but further rise is still in favor as long as it holds. In Europe, FTSE is down -0.60%. DAX is up 0.31%. CAC is up 0.16%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0139 at -0.41. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.86%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.31%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.67%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.49%. Japan 10-year yield dropped -0.0017 to -0.153. Fed is widely expected to cut interest rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25% today. Such rate cut should very well be priced in. The questions are whether it's a start of an easing cycle, or just a one-off response to risks. The voting will reflect the split inside the committee. Chair Jerome Powell's press conference is even more important in framing the cut. Full Report Here Canada GDP grew 0.2% in May, third straight month of expansion US ADP employment grew 156k, job growth still healthy but slowing China MOFCOM: Candid, effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade... Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.1%, core to 0.9%, GDP grew just... Germany retail sales rose 3.5% in Jun, unemployment rate unchanged at... Dollar softens ahead Fed’s rate cut, some previews Australia CPI accelerated to 1.6% on automotive fuel prices ANZ business confidence dropped to -44.3, two more RBNZ cuts expected... China PMI manufacturing rose to 49.7, foundation for stabilization still needs... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOE Preview – Standing On Sideline and Sending More Neutral... FOMC Preview – Expecting -25 bps Cut From a Divided Fed CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Raised Bets for Higher Precious... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.67; (R1) 108.88; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 107.93 minor support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Markets Brief: FOMC Expected to Cut Interest Rates US Open – Fed Day, Trade Talks To Continue In Sept, Apple Delivers, Oil, Gold, And Bitcoin Rise The Fed Are Expected To Cut Today – How Has That Fared For Markets Historically? EURJPY Trapped Between The 50- And 200-SMA, Bollinger Bands Strengthen The Barriers NZDUSD Closes Below 50-SMA, Tests 0.66 Level S&P 500 Index Formed An Interesting Pattern AUDUSD Bounces On Key Support Level, MACD Still Bearish Asian Equities Recoil At Trump’s Confrontational Tone Around US-China Trade Imbalance Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Brexit Monitor: There is Always a But Brexit Update - New PM, Old Challenge RBNZ: OCR Limbo... How LowCan It Go? Japan- Korea Trade Tensions - Removal of Preferential Treatment to Korea Signals Trade Tension Should Escalate RBA to Cut Cash Rate to 0.75% in October & to 0.50% in February A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jul -11 -13 -13 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jul -0.10% -0.10% 01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Jul -44.3 -38.1 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.7 49.6 49.4 01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Jul 53.7 54 54.2 01:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.50% 0.00% 01:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.60% 1.50% 1.30% 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q2 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q2 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.40% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Jun 0.10% 0.30% 0.20% 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun 0.30% -2.20% -8.70% 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jul 37.8 38.5 38.7 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jun 3.50% 0.50% -0.60% 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul 1K 2K -1K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate Jul 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.60% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jul A 0.90% 1.00% 1.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul 1.10% 1.10% 1.20% 10:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% -0.10% 0.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 156K 150K 102K 112K 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.60% 0.70% 0.70% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M May 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jun -1.40% -0.10% 0.10% -0.10% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jun -5.90% -0.40% -2.30% -2.40% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 51.5 49.7 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.5M -10.8M 18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.25% 2.50% 18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.00% 2.25% 18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

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