Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-16-19

Dollar Rebounds on Retail Sales, Sterling Shrugs Solid Job Data

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-16-19 Dollar Rebounds on Retail Sales, Sterling Shrugs Solid Job Data Dollar rebound strongly in early US session, with support from strong retail sales data. Though, upside is somewhat capped by industrial production miss. Canadian Dollar is, instead, the strongest one. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one for today despite solid employment data. UK unemployment rate stayed at 45-year low while wage growth accelerated. But that's overshadowed by renewing no-deal Brexit fear. Both runners Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt rejected Irish backstop in any part of Brexit deal. Such position will make Brexit negotiations very tough ahead. Euro is the second weakest as German ZEW Economic Sentiment deteriorated further in July. Technically, GBP/USD's break of 1.2439 temporary low suggests fall resumption for 1.2391 low. Break there will resume medium term decline. GBP/JPY also resumes recent decline from 148.87 for 131.51 low. EUR/GBP takes out 0.9010 resistance earlier today and should be heading to 0.9101 key resistance next. EUR/JPY break s121.31 minor support and is heading to 120.78 low for resuming larger decline from 127.50. A focus is now on 1.1193 support in EUR/USD and break will revive near term bearishness for 1.1107 low. In other markets, major US indices open mildly lower while 10-year yield is up 0.0349 at 2.127. In Europe, currently, FTSE is up 0.45%. DAX is up 0.25%. CAC is up 0.53%. German 10-year yield is up 0.003 at -0.248. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.69%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.23%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.16%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.36%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0071 to -0.121. Full Report Here New Zealand CPI rose 0.6% qoq, NZD/USD extending rebound RBA minutes indicate easing bias, but wait-and-see first US Mnuchin: Debt ceiling deal soon, another call with China this... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol RBA's July Minutes – Cutting Rate to Weaken Aussie and Lower... Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below... Dollar Reversed, Stocks Made New Records on as Fed Cut Expectations... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2491; (P) 1.2535; (R1) 1.2559; More.... GBP/USD drops to as low as 1.2408 so far today as fall from 1.3381 resumes. Intraday is back on the downside for retesting 1.2391 low. Firm break will resume larger down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. On the upside, break of 1.2579 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish in case of recovery. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings USDCHF Reverses Higher But Remains Bearish in Medium Term Crude Probes Resistance ahead of Oil Stocks Data Bitcoin – Mnuchin Comments Offer Short Reprieve Why The Pound Is Falling Despite Impressive Wage Growth US OPEN – JP Morgan Disappoints, USD Firmer, Commodities Steady, Bitcoin Down UK Data On Tap As No-Deal Brexit Fears Strike Back CADJPY Lacks Direction In Short And Long Terms Markets Yawn And Hit Snooze Button Ahead Of US Earnings Reports GBPUSD Lacks Bullish Signals Near Six-Month Lows WTI Futures Find Resistance At 23.6% Fibo, 'Golden Cross' Completed Canadian Inflation Expected To Fall Back In June, Confirm Temporary Bounce Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End. China's Strong Trade Surplus Driven by Contraction in Imports. Strong Inflation Unlikely Restrains Further Easing As Central Banks Move to Cut Rates Again, How Much Lower Can They Go? July a Done Deal for FOMC, with Risks Front of Mind Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q2 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% 22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q2 1.70% 1.70% 1.50% 01:30 AUD RBA Minutes Jul 08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Jun 3.20% 3.10% 08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Jun 38.0K 18.9K 23.2k 24.5K 08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y May 3.40% 3.10% 3.10% 3.20% 08:30 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y May 3.60% 3.50% 3.40% 08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths May 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May 20.2B 16.4B 15.3B 09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul -24.5 -22 -21.1 09:00 EUR German ZEW Current Situation Jul -1.1 5 7.8 09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul -20.3 -20.9 -20.2 12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) May 10.20B 5.02B -12.80B 12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jun -0.90% -0.70% -0.30% 12:30 USD Retail Sales Advance M/M Jun 0.40% 0.10% 0.50% 0.40% 12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Jun 0.40% 0.10% 0.50% 0.40% 13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.40% 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jun 77.90% 78.10% 78.10% 14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 64 64 14:00 USD Business Inventories May 0.40% 0.50%

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