Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-30-19

Sterling Selloff Continues as No-Deal Brexit Risks Intensify

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-30-19 Dollar Mixed after Core PCE Inflation Miss, Aussie Tumbles on Risk Aversion Sterling remains the overwhelmingly weakest one on no-deal Brexit concerns. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing EU to re-open Brexit negotiation. But there is no sign from EU on a position shift yet. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the next weakest as markets turn into risk averse mode. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest one, followed Euro. Dollar is mixed as today's US core PCE inflation reading is not enough to alter Fed's decision to cut interest rate tomorrow. Technically, selloff in Australian Dollar intensifies in early US session on risk aversion. AUD/USD is on track to retest 0.6831 support. EUR/AUD is pressing 1.6231 resistance and break will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.6448 at 1.5894. Further rise could then be seen back to retest 1.6448. In other markets, US stocks open mildly lower with DOW down -0.30% at the time of writing. 10-year yield is flat at 2.066. In Europe, FTSE is down -0.41%. DAX is down -2.23%. CAC is down -1.62%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0053 % -0.394. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.43%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.14%. China Shanghai rose 0.39%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0044 to -0.151. Full Report Here US core PCE rose to 1.6%, not enough to change Fed’s... Euro lifted by German CPI, capped by poor Eurozone confidence BoJ Kuroda: We went a step forward to additional policy easing Swiss KOF rose to 97.1, slightly more favorable signals from manufacturing,... German Gfk consumer confidence dropped to 9.7, economic expectations turned negative French GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, missed expectation Japan industrial production dropped -3.6% in indecisive fluctuations BoJ stands pat, economy to continue on an expanding trend Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOE Preview – Standing On Sideline and Sending More Neutral... FOMC Preview – Expecting -25 bps Cut From a Divided Fed CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Raised Bets for Higher Precious... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6892; (P) 0.6904; (R1) 0.6914; More... AUD/USD's fall extends to as low as 0.6869 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.6831 low. The three wave corrective structure from 0.6831 to 0.7082 suggests that larger decline from 0.7295 is in progress and is possibly resuming. Break of 0.6831 will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6722 low next. On the upside, break of 0.6909 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings US: Personal Spending Growth Rises for the Fourth Consecutive Months in June Markets Brief: Risk Off GBPAUD Produces a Failed Break of the 6-Month Low, Buyers Take Back Losses Traders Nervous Ahead Of The Fed UK100 Index Soars To One-Year Highs FTSE Just About Holds In The Black On Oils Miners Gold May Break Its Downward Trend Line Australian Inflation To Inch Higher But Unlikely To Stop RBA From Cutting Rates Further WTI Futures Price Squeezed Between The Moving Averages Sterling Struggles To Nurse Wounds Inflicted By No-Deal Brexit Fears Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Brexit Monitor: There is Always a But Brexit Update - New PM, Old Challenge RBNZ: OCR Limbo... How LowCan It Go? Japan- Korea Trade Tensions - Removal of Preferential Treatment to Korea Signals Trade Tension Should Escalate RBA to Cut Cash Rate to 0.75% in October & to 0.50% in February A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jun -3.90% 13.20% 13.50% 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate Jun 2.30% 2.40% 2.40% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun P -3.60% -1.80% 2.00% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -1.20% 0.20% 0.70% 0.30% 02:00 JPY BOJ Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Aug 9.7 9.7 9.8 07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul 97.1 93.3 93.6 93.8 09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jul -0.12 0.1 0.17 09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jul 102.7 102.7 103.3 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jul -7.4 -6.7 -5.6 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jul 10.6 10.7 11 09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul F -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -7.2 12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jull P 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jull P 1.70% 1.50% 1.60% 12:30 USD Personal Income Jun 0.40% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Jun 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jun 1.40% 1.50% 1.50% 1.40% 12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jun 1.60% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y May 2.40% 2.40% 2.54% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jun 2.80% 0.30% 1.10% 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Index Jul 135.7 125 121.5 124.3

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