Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-5-19

Trade Optimism Lifts Market Sentiments, Treasury Yields Higher

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-5-19 Trade Optimism Lifts Market Sentiments, Treasury Yields Higher Trade optimism is the main diver in the financial markets today. There are talks that US officials are considering to remove the 15% tariffs on USD 112B worth of Chinese goods, put to effect back on September 1. In return, US would demand stronger intellectual property protections. If realized with the phase one trade deal, that would be the first real de-escalation of tariff war between US and China. USD/CNH dives through psychologically important 7 handle. Meanwhile, German and US treasury yields rise strongly, with US 10-year yield back above 1.8 handle. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are generally the strongest one, as led by Australian Dollar. Swiss Franc and Yen are weakest naturally. Dollar is mixed for the moment but Gold's decline suggests there is not much selling pressure in the greenback. Technically, EUR/AUD resumed recent fall from 1.6432 and should be heading to 1.5905 support. AUD/JPY breaks 75.29 to resume the rebound from 69.95 towards 76.16 resistance. But AUD/USD is staying in tight range below 0.6929 temporary top. With today's decline in EUR/USD, focus is back on 1.1062 support and break will confirm completion of rebound from 1.0879. In that case, we might see Dollar strength spilling over to other pairs. In Europe, currently, FTSE is up 0.33%. DAX is up 0.08%. CAC is up 0.24%. German 10-year yield is up 0.034 at -0.314. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.76%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.49%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.54%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.38%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0458 to -0.134. Full Report Here US trade deficit widened to USD 52.5B, exports dropped -0.9%, imports... Fed Barkin watching three meaningful conflicts closely UK PMI services rose to 50.0, overall PMIs suggest -0.1% GDP... Yuan rebounds on trade optimism, USD/CNH breaks 7 handle Xi pledges opening market access as China pushes for US tariff... BoJ Kuroda: There are various possible measures for additional easing China Caixin PMI services dropped to 51.1, employment dipped to contraction Australia AiG services rose to 2.7, improved business and consumer spending RBA stands pat, maintains easing bias, outlook little changed Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol PBOC Cut 1-Year Lending Rate for the First Time since 2016 BOE Preview – Maintaining Dovish Stance although No-Deal Brexit Less ... Fed, BoC and RBA Expectations Drove USD, CAD and AUD Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1111; (P) 1.1143; (R1) 1.1161; More... EUR/USD drops notably today but stays above 1.1062 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.1062 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1179 will resume the rebound from 1.0879 to 1.1412 key resistance. However, break of 1.1062 will argue that rebound from 1.0879 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.0879. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings Canadian Trade Deficit Narrower But Not for Good Reasons Stocks and Yuan Gain Further on US-China Trade HOPES Final Phase-One Demands, Speaker, Oil, Gold XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Eases Towards $1500 Mark On Fresh Risk Mode Equities Hit All-Time High, RBA Boosts The Aussie European Open – US Tariffs, Gold, Oil Should Investors Look At US Or European Equity Markets? Market Brief: Risk On Extends As US Considers Tariff Rollback RBA Holds, Yet Aussie Upside Remains Clouded By Resistance | AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports PBOC Cut 1-Year Lending Rate for the First Time since 2016 RBA Left Cash Rate Unchanged at 0.75%, Maintained Dovish Bias as Members Struggle to Bring Jobless Rate Lower RBA Stays on Hold; Signals on Hold in December as Well Brexit Update - Early Elections to be Held in 5 Weeks Brexit Monitor: Election Is An EU Referendum In Disguise – Difficult To Predict The Outcome From Polls Gaming Out U.K. Election Scenarios Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Services Index Oct 54.2 51.5 23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct 3.10% 2.90% 3.00% 00:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Oct 1.20% 0.00% 00:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Oct 0.10% -1.40% -1.70% 01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Oct 51.1 52.8 51.3 03:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 09:30 GBP Services PMI Oct 50 49.6 49.5 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep 0.10% -0.40% -0.50% 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep -1.20% -0.70% -0.80% 13:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Sep -52.5B -53.0B -54.9B -55.0B 13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Sep -1.0B -0.6B -1.0B -1.2B 14:45 USD Services PMI Oct F 51 51 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Oct 53.2 52.6

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