By Caleb Silver, Editor in Chief
Friday's Headlines 1. U.S. markets top new record highs and close fourth straight week of gains 2. Boris Johnson wins key Brexit vote in Parliament 3. These stocks hit all-time highs this week 4. A year ago, things felt very different 5. What's ahead for next week? Markets Closed
Year-to-Date
Markets Today Did you know that 444 is a number of protection and encouragement, and a sign that you are currently following the right path? I didn't either, so thank you Internet. Headlines
chart courtesy YCharts
High Times for These Stocks Record highs for markets means record highs for some stocks. We saw several big names hitting that mark this week. I've selected a handful to show the breadth of the rally, but if you are looking for a more complete list, we recommend YCharts, TradingView.com and BarChart.com as good sources. All-time highs this week:
Correction: Yesterday we incorrectly referred to semiconductor equipment maker Lam Research as Lamb Research. Ewe deserve better. chart courtesy LPLFinancial
It was Just a Year Ago... I'm not bringing up last year to rain on the parade of good news stock investors have been enjoying lately, but it's worth a look at what was happening in the final days of 2018 in relation to where we are now.
On December 4, 2018, Trump called himself a "Tariff Man", and the market fell more than 3%. It fell another 6.5% or so in the days leading up to December 19th, when the Federal Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.25% to a range of 2.25-2.50%. The market fell 3% between the 19th and 20th. It fell another 4.77% in the following two sessions, including a 2.7% drop on Christmas Eve. All the gains for the year had been wiped out going into Christmas Day and the fear of a bear market could be smelled everywhere. Then, on December 26th, Fed Chair Jay Powell had an about face and announced that the Fed would be, "...patient on deciding further rate hikes." Markets ripped nearly 5% higher that day, and have almost not looked back since. chart courtesy YCharts
Yes, there have been fits and starts throughout the year, mostly around the trade war with China, concerns about the inversion of the yield curve, and threats of a recession. That mostly turned out to be smoke and no fire.
Since then, the Fed lowered rates three times, consumers held up the economy with their credit cards, the yield curve stopped inverting, and the U.S. and China have taken the first steps towards resolving their trade war. The result is that U.S. equity markets are at or near record highs even though many retail investors have been taking money out of stocks and putting it into cash and money markets all year. Institutions have been buying stocks, trying to find alpha as the Fed cut rates and treasury yields fell.
Those of you who resisted the urge to sell equities at this time last year have been rewarded. Those of you who didn't have some catching up to do. The Week Ahead It's a short week for markets next week as markets around the world will be closed. Take a look at the table below for details on which markets are closed when. And here are the returns by asset class year to date. Here's a brief look at the week ahead.
Wednesday December 25
chart courtesy YCHARTS Cruise company Carnival delivered an earnings beat today and offered optimistic guidance, sending its stock up 7.5%. In separate news two Carnival cruise ships crashed into each other, one person suffered minor injuries. Other winners today were fertilizer companies Mosaic, up 5.4%, and CF Industries, up 4.2%. Used-car retailer CarMax fell 6.2% today after an earnings miss. Medical device company Abiomed fell 3.9% after Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on the stock from $215 to $198. IT services F5 Networks fell 3.7% after it announced it was purchasing fraud-prevention firm Shape Security. Word of the Day Market momentum is a measure of overall market sentiment that can support buying and selling with and against market trends. There are several market factors and indicators that can help an investor to follow market momentum. Today in History December 20, 1994 Today in 1994 Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo announced that the Mexican central bank would devalue the peso setting off the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis. The peso tied to the dollar by a crawling peg, and had been under pressure all year. Political shocks such as the rebellion in the state of Chiapas and the assassination of leading presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio were compounded by investor capital flight. The peso's peg was abandoned on December 22, and rapidly depreciated further. This rapid and sudden depreciation exacerbated the market panic and resulted in a severe recession that eventually required a $50 billion IMF bailout package to stop. The currency shock reverberated out to South America causing other currencies to decline as well.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tequilaeffect.asp
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Friday, December 20, 2019
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