Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-15-20

Dollar Rebounds Further on Oil Weakness and Poor US Data

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-15-20 Dollar Rebounds Further on Oil Weakness and Poor US Data Dollar is striking back today as market turns into risk averse mode, in particular after poor US economic data. Mild weakness in oil price is also weighing down on sentiments. For now, the greenback is the strongest one, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar is leading commodity currencies lower. Technically, as noted earlier, WTI oil's (currently at 26.2) break of 4 hour 55 EMA is opening up the case for retesting 20.40 low. The development could drag down stocks and lift Dollar and Yen. As USD/JPY recovers after drawing support from 106.91, more upside could is mildly in favor. The greenback is having a slight upper hand over Yen. EUR/USD's break of 1.0892 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.0768 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to this support. Similarly, USD/CHF's break of 0.9687 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.9797 has completed and further rise would be seen back to this resistance. 0.6213 resistance turned support in AUD/USD is a level to watch. Break will raise the chance of completion of whole rebound from 0.5506. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -2.72%. DAX is down -3.04%. CAC is down -2.71%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0911 at -0.468. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.45%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.19%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.57%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0047 to 0.021. Full Report Here US Empire State manufacturing dropped to -78.2, record low by a... US retail sales dropped -8.7%, ex-auto sale down -4.5% Fed Daly doesn't expect a sharp V-shaped recovery after coronavirus pandemic EU laid pre-conditions of lockdown exit, WHO suggests two-week staged approach Germany: Economic performance slumped in Q1, trend continues in April Australia consumer sentiment suffered record plunge, but overall pandemic experience much... PBoC cut MLF rate to record low, LPR cut expected later... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol BOC to Stand on Sideline this Week. Unscheduled Policy Announcement Possible... OPEC+ Deal on Output Cut Unlikely Helps Reduce Surplus. Downside Risk... CFTC Commitments of Traders – Recovery on Oil Prices Fades on... Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0930; (P) 1.0958; (R1) 1.1012; More... EUR/USD's break of 1.0892 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.0768 has completed at 1.0990. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.0768 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.1147 to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, break of 1.0990 will target 1.1147 resistance. Overall, price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a consolidation pattern which might extend further. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings GBPJPY Pauses Upside Rally Below 1-Month Peak WTI Oil Outlook: WTI Oil Probes Again Below Critical $20 Support On Gloomy Outlook Due To Strong Fall In Demand A Dash Of Reality GBPAUD Holds Near-Term Negative Mode Despite Bounce Off Previous Trough EURGBP Selling Interest Intact Near 1-Month Low NZDUSD Pulls Below Trendline, Set Near-Term Bearish Target At 0.5960 USDJPY Promotes Further Declines With Revisit Of Latest Low Gold Rallies Near 7½-Year High, Pauses Bullish Move GBP/USD Slips Off 5 Week High, Testing Critical Support Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Canada: COVID-19 Recession Deepens Fast from Coast to Coast OPEC+ Deal on Output Cut Unlikely Helps Reduce Surplus. Downside Risk on Oil Price Remains Moderation in China's CPI Allows Government to Accelerate Stimulus Virus Containment Could Spell Trouble for the Dollar Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr -17.70% -3.80% 06:45 EUR France CPI M/M Mar F 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 06:45 EUR France CPI Y/Y Mar F 0.80% 0.70% 0.70% 12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Apr -78.2 -35 -21.5 12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Mar -8.70% -3.40% -0.50% 12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar -4.50% -1.40% -0.40% 13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Mar -2.20% 0.60% 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 73.90% 77.00% 14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 65 72 14:00 USD Business Inventories Feb -0.30% -0.10% 14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 15.2M 15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference 19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book 23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Mar -5.50% -0.40%

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