| Wednesday's Headlines 1. US markets bounce back as oil climbs 2. The EU and US eye new stimulus plans 3. Which countries are doing the most? 4. Which states will go back to work first? 5. Happy Earth Day Markets Closed
 image: Monty Rakusen/Getty
Markets Today U.S. markets bounced back after two straight days of losses as crude oil prices rebounded, bringing sentiment with them. The major U.S. equity indexes closed 2–3% higher, with oil services companies and technology leading the way. Shares of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft all closed higher too, and that always helps bring up the major averages.
Crude oil prices staged another comeback with the June contract for WTI rising 19% while Brent crude prices jumped 7.6%, both reversing losses from earlier this morning. The oil market is very confused right now as investors and traders try to make the right bet on what future demand looks like. That's really hard to do.
Meanwhile government stimulus measures continue to pile up as the European Commission considers a 2 trillion euro rescue package ahead of its video meeting tomorrow. U.S. lawmakers are also expected to approve a new $484 billion stimulus plan targeted at small businesses.
The global government response to the crisis has been unprecedented. The question is whether it will be enough and how long we will need it. **Survey alert: We are running another survey of our U.S. newsletter readers to learn more about your views on these volatile markets and moves you may or may not be making in your portfolios. We don't do anything creepy or untoward with the information you provide... I promise. If you would, please take this brief survey, and we'll let you know what we learn. Thanks!**
Headlines:
 chart courtesy BCO Research
The Global Fiscal Response With U.S lawmakers set to approve another $484 billion in fiscal measures, and Italy and Spain planning to add to their stimulus packages, it's worth noting the scale of the response from global governments to the crisis. In some countries, like the U.S. and Germany, stimulus as a percentage of GDP is 12% or higher.
Stimulus measures in 2020 also dwarf those of 2008–09, which started with a financial crisis in the U.S. that spread around the world. In the U.S., that recession lasted 18 months, the unemployment rate hit 10% at its peak, and household net worth fell by $14 trillion.  Which U.S. States May Relax Distancing Measures First? U.S. states can independently decide when they will relax social distancing measures and let people get back to work. Some states, such as Georgia and North Carolina, are already starting a phased-in approach.
But a lot of those decisions will be based on the number of new cases in each state, the number of fatalities, and if strong containment measures have already been instituted. The Inst. for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, one of the leading data trackers of COVID-19, has modeled out a staggered opening, state by state, depending on when each state falls below the one prevalent case per 1,000,000 people threshold during the month of May.
According to the IHME, states including Vermont, Montana, West Virginia, and North Carolina may relax some social distancing measures in early May. Others, including Arizona, Florida, and Kansas, may have to wait until June 8th or later. Those states have seen an increase in reported deaths in recent days and flatter epidemic peaks.
The IHME states, however, that these projections may hold if and only if there are containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering sizes.
(If you are really into looking at COVID-19 data, spend some time on the IHME's website—it's worth it.)
Here's an interesting visualization of the population by state, relative to each other, to give you a little more perspective on how many people this phased in plan will impact over the next few months.
chart courtesy engaging-data.com  Sustainable Investing In honor of Earth Day, it's a great time to learn more about Sustainable Investing. It's a growing trend as more and more investors prefer to allocate their investments towards companies that try to lessen or eliminate their carbon footprints and abide by business practices that support all their stakeholders and protect the environment.
Here are some helpful links: What is Sustainability?
Happy Earth Day! 
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS)  Shares of Chipotle are up by 14% after the fast casual restaurant chain reported incredibly strong Q1 results, with its digital sales having more than doubled last month. The stock prices of oil companies, such as Pioneer Natural Resources (over 10%), Halliburton (10%), Apache (over 9.5%), and Diamondback Energy (9%), are up today after the commodity snapped back 10% from its recent fall to record lows.  Shares of fashion retailer L Brands are down by 17% after it was reported that Sycamore Partners is trying to cancel its acquisition of Victoria's Secret, of which L Brands is a parent company. Biogen's stock price fell by over 9% following its Q1 report revealing that the biotech company is delaying the filing for U.S. regulatory approval of its Alzheimer's drug aducanumab. Word of the Day Fannie Mae—known officially as the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)—is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) chartered by Congress to stimulate home ownership and provide liquidity to the mortgage market. It was established in 1938 during the Great Depression as part of the New Deal. Its purpose is to help moderate- to low-income borrowers obtain financing for a home.  image: NYTimes
Today in History April 22st, 1980: Market guru Joe Granville signals his 1,500 premium subscribers (who pay an extra $500 annually for his market-timing telephone alerts) to buy stocks. The next day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surges 4% to close at 789.85. "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake on the stock market for the rest of my life," crows Granville—who freely admits he doesn't even invest his own money in stocks. Perhaps not; but listening to Granville's advice is a very serious mistake indeed: Financial newsletter expert Mark Hulbert later calculates that Granville's followers lose 98% of their money following his market calls between 1980 and 1987."The Prophet of Profits," Time Magazine, Sept. 15, 1980, p. 69.
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Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Capping the Well
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