Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-20

Dollar Recovering as Risk Appetite Recedes, Euro Turns Softer after ECB

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-20 Dollar Recovering as Risk Appetite Recedes, Euro Turns Softer after ECB Risk appetite recedes mildly today as European indices turn negative after initial gain, dragging US futures lower too. Euro is originally rather unmoved by ECB's policy decision as well as press conference. But some weakness is seen at the time of writing. Traders seem to be betting more on Dollar's recovery on stocks pull back. The development also drags down gold notably, which hit as high as 1721 earlier today, but it's now back at around 1700 handle. For today so far, Australian Dollar is the weakest one, leading commodity currencies lower. Sterling is the strongest, followed by Sterling and then Swiss Franc. Technically, Aussie is finally showing sign of a pull back against others, including Dollar, Yen, Canadian and even Euro. 0.6444 resistance turned support in AUD/USD is a level to watch. Break could prompt more broad based decline in Aussie. EUR/USD seems to be rejected by 1.0865 minor resistance again. But intraday bias will stay neutral first as it's holding well above 1.0727 support. Nevertheless, EUR/GBP's breach of 0.8681 support suggests resumption of fall from 0.9499. 115.44 temporary low in EUR/JPY will be watched for more broad based weakness in Euro. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -2.15%. DAX is down -1.41%. CAC is down -1.43%. German 10-year yield is down -0.060 at -0.553. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.14%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.28%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.33%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.92%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0077 to -0.037. Full Report Here ECB expects eurozone economy to contract -5% to -12% this year US personal income dropped -2.0%, spending dropped -7.5% US initial claims dropped to 3.8m, continuing claims rose to 18m ECB press conference live stream ECB keeps interest rate unchanged, PEPP at EUR 750B, asset purchase... Eurozone GDP shrank -3.8% in Q1, CPI slowed to 0.4% in... Swiss KOF dropped to 63.5, all indicator groups pushing the barometer... France GDP shrank record -5.8%, worse than 2009 and 1968 China PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.8 while non-manufacturing improved Japan industrial production, retail sales dropped most since Oct New Zealand ANZ business confidence off low, offers a glimmer of... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Crude Oil Selloff Could Resume in Weeks as Cushing Approaches Full... Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and... BOJ's QE Expansion Likely Ineffective Despite Pledge of Unlimited Purchases Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0861; (R1) 1.0903; More... EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0891 today but fail to sustain above 1.0885 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.0635 are seen as a corrective pattern. on the upside, break of 1.0891 minor resistance will start the third leg, towards 1.1147 resistance. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167. On the downside, break of 1.0727 will target a test on 1.0635 low. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings US Futures Consolidating, Watch FB, MSFT, TSLA, MCD, TWTR, QCOM USD Weakens After The Fed And As Market Sentiment Improves Could WTI Oil Futures Confirm A Bullish Double Bottom Structure GBPJPY Seems To Have Found A Roof Near 133.00 EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Holds Positive Tone But Faces Strong Headwinds At Key Fibo Barrier AUDUSD Tops At Fresh Highs, Short-Term Risk Cautiously Positive USDJPY Acquires Some Negative Fuel, Upside Corrections Dwindle USDCAD Flirts With Sharper Selling Interest, Neutral In Near Term Stocks Jump On Virus Drug Hopes, Fed's Blank Cheque Pressures Dollar France GDP Fell 5.8% In First Quarter The Fed Has The Market's Back, But It Was Not The Reason For The Significant Rally Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports China Outlook: From Output To Demand Crisis, CNY Stability Set To Continue Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and Surge in Unemployment Crude Reality Monitoring The International Impact Of COVID-19 RBNZ OCR to Go Negative Later this Tear The RBA's Target Cash Rate is Likely to Hold at 0.25% Until End 2023 Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P -3.70% -5.20% -0.30% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Mar -4.60% -4.70% 1.60% 01:00 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Apr 50.8 51 52 01:00 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr 53.2 52.8 52.3 01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Apr -66.6 -73.1 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Mar 1.10% 0.30% 0.40% 01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 -1.00% 1.00% 0.70% 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -7.60% -16.00% -12.30% 05:30 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q1 P -5.80% -4.00% -0.10% 06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Mar -5.60% -7.50% 1.20% 0.80% 06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -5.60% -3.60% 0.30% 06:45 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Mar -17.90% -5.50% -0.10% -0.50% 07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Apr 63.5 58 92.9 91.7 07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Apr 373K 70K 1K 07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Apr 5.80% 5.20% 5.00% 08:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Rate Mar 8.40% 10.50% 9.70% 9.30% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P -3.80% -3.30% 0.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q1 P -3.30% -2.80% 1.00% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 7.40% 7.70% 7.30% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr P 0.40% 0.00% 0.70% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr P 0.90% 0.70% 1.00% 10:00 EUR Italy GDP Q/Q Q1 P -4.70% -5.00% -0.30% 10:00 EUR Italy GDP Y/Y Q1 P -4.80% -3.90% 0.10% 11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index Mar -15.60% -15.50% -4.70% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Mar -0.90% -1.90% -0.50% 12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Mar -2.00% -1.40% 0.60% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar -7.50% -5.00% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Mar -0.30% 0.10% 12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 1.30% 1.60% 1.80% 12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Mar -0.10% -0.10% 0.20% 12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 24) 3839K 4427K 4442K 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.80% 0.70% 0.70% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 36 47.8 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 70B 43B

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