Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 12-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Pared Gains on Fed Yellen, ECB to Announce Easing

While yesterday's job data gave the greenback a lift, the momentum was brief as dollar pared back much of the gains after comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen. In short, Yellen emphasized that the upcoming economy data could still sway Fed sway from the highly anticipated rate hike later this month. She noted that between now and the next FOMC meeting, there will be "additional data that bear on the economic outlook" and policymakers " will assess all of the available data and their implications for the economic outlook in making our policy decision." Meanwhile, regarding the economy, she anticipated "continued economic growth at a moderate pace that will be sufficient to generate additional increases in employment, further reductions in the remaining margins of labour market slack and a rise in inflation to our 2 per cent objective."

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.41; (P) 130.69; (R1) 131.09; More...

EUR/JPY drew some support from the lower channel line and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Nonetheless, as long as 131.57 resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Sustained break of the channel support (now at 129.38) will pave the way for a test on 126.09 low. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 131.57 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Oct -3.31B -2.61B -2.32B -2.4B
08:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Nov 53.9 53.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Nov F 54.6 54.6
09:30 GBP UK Services PMI Nov 55.1 54.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.20% -0.10%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov -1.30%
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 28) 269K 260K
15:00 USD Factory Orders Oct 0.90% -1.00%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Nov 58.1 59.1
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 9B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated in European session, bids at 1.0600 and 1.0580 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0575, 1.0550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.0550) and 1.0525-30, buying interest is tipped at 1.0500 (another barrier), 1.0485 and 1.0465, fresh demand is located at 1.0450, 1.0425-30 and 1.0400 (stops below). On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0620-35 area, 1.0650 and 1.0665, sell orders are expected at 1.0685-1.0700 area, 1.0720-25 and 1.0745, selling interest should emerge around 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7040

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 0.7000, retaining our view that further consolidation above last week's low of 0.6982 would be seen and mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above resistance at 0.7080 would bring retracement of recent decline and gain to resistance at 0.7110 would follow. Having said that, break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7130 and later 0.7150-55

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Stand aside

The greenback has risen again after finding support at 1.3310 yesterday, dampening our near term bearishness and retest of resistance at 1.3436 (last week's high) cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal upmove has resumed for retest of recent high at 1.3457, once this level is penetrated, this would encourage for headway towards 1.3500-10 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3550.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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