Thursday, December 3, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 12-4-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: ECB Disappointment Rocked the Markets, NFP to Follow

The disappointment from yesterday's ECB announcement was clearly felt in the financial markets. EUR/USD rebounded to as high as 1.0980 after dipping to 1.0517 earlier in the day. The move dragged down dollar index through near term support at 98.43 to as low as 97.59, which signals near term reversal. The stock markets were also rocked. DAX closed down -400 pts, or -3.58%. CAC dropped -175 pts or -3.58%. FTSE dropped -145 pts or -2.27%. US equities were also dragged down with DJIA lost -252 pts or -1.42%. S&P 500 dropped -29 pts or -1.44%. The sentiment carry on in Asian session with Nikkei down over -300 pts in initial trading. The financial markets are now looking forward to another key event of non-farm payroll report from US.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0658; (P) 1.0819 (R1) 1.1099; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.0517 as the third leg. Further rally should be seen to 1.1086 support turned resistance first. Break will target 1.1713 resistance. We'd expect strong resistance around 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.0788 minor support will turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Oct 0.40% 0.60%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Nov 41.8 41.5
07:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Oct 1.30% -1.70%
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Nov 0.00% 0.10%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Nov -1.40%
09:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Nov 51.3
13:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Nov 198k 271k
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Nov 5.00% 5.00%
13:30 USD Trade Balance Oct -40.6B -40.8B
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Nov -0.7K 44.4k
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Nov 7.00% 7.00%
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Oct -1.7B -1.7B
13:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 0.20% -0.60%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Nov 55.3 53.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency fell initially to 1.0523 before staging a rally on unusually hawkish tone from Draghi, most offers are cleared on the way up, some sell orders are reported at 1.0900 and 1.0930. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0770, 1.0740-50 and 1.0700-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.0670, 1.0645-50 and 1.0620.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Target met and stand aside

Despite intra-day retreat to 0.7051, the single currency found renewed buying interest there and has stage the anticipated rally, our long position entered at 0.7040 finally met our upside target at 0.7140, this also justified our bullish view that low has been formed at 0.6982 last week, hence bullishness remains for the rebound from there to bring retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.7250 but reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below 0.7300.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.3385

As the greenback has rebounded again after finding support at 1.3293, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and recovery to 1.3385-90 cannot be ruled out, however, as outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3400 and price should falter below resistance at 1.3436 (last week's high), bring retreat later, below said support at 1.3293 would bring test of 1.3280 but break there is needed to signal top has been formed at 1.3436

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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