Thursday, December 3, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-3-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Soars as New ECB Easing Disappoints Bears

Euro jumps sharply as bears see the new stimulus measures by ECB as a disappointment. The main refinancing rate was held at 0.05% as widely expected. Meanwhile, the deposit rate was cut by 10bps to -0.30%, and that's slightly smaller that what the markets priced in. ECB president Mario Draghi also said in the post meeting press conference that the current asset purchase program will be extended through March 2017, comparing to the original plan of September 2016. The purchase will also now include regional government bonds. That is, ECB shied away from expanding the size of quantitative easing. Draghi also noted that the central bank is doing more because "it works, not because it fails" and they would like to "consolidate something that has been a success". The decision was not unanimous by was done with "large majority".

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0565; (P) 1.0599 (R1) 1.0649; More.....

The strong rebound in EUR/USD indicates short term bottoming at 1.0517 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, just ahead of 1.0461 key support level. Fall from 1.1713 should be completed and intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.1086 support turned resistance first. Break will target 1.1713 resistance. Price actions from 1.0461 are still viewed as a consolidation pattern. Hence we'd expect strong resistance around 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Oct -3.31B -2.61B -2.32B -2.4B
08:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Nov 53.4 53.9 53.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Nov F 54.2 54.6 54.6
09:30 GBP UK Services PMI Nov 55.9 55.1 54.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov -13.90% -1.30%
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 28) 269K 269K 260K
15:00 USD Factory Orders Oct 0.90% -1.00%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Nov 58.1 59.1
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 9B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency fell initially to 1.0523 before staging a rally on unusually hawkish tone from Draghi, most offers are cleared on the way up, some sell orders are reported at 1.0900 and 1.0930. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0770, 1.0740-50 and 1.0700-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.0670, 1.0645-50 and 1.0620.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 1.0170

Although the greenback rebounded to 1.0270, renewed selling interest emerged there and dollar tumbled on back of the rally in euro, suggesting top has been formed at 1.0328 last week and the decline from there may extend weakness to 1.0080, then 1.0050, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon previous support at 0.9990 would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 122.70

Although the greenback retreated after rising to 123.67 yesterday (just missed our upside target at 123.70), as 123.10 has contained pullback and dollar has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for the rise from 122.26 to extend gain towards resistance at 123.76. Looking ahead, only a break of this level would signal medium term upmove has resumed for headway to 124.00-10 first.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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