Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-2-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Lifted by ADP Job, Euro Down on CPI

Dollar regains much ground against European majors today. Euro and Sterling are both weighed down mildly by respective data. Meanwhile, there is some support for the greenback from job data. The ADP employment report showed 217k growth in private sector jobs in November, notably above expectation of 185k. Prior month's figure was also revised up from 182k to 196k. Non-farm productivity was finalized at 2.2% in Q3 while unit labor cost was finalized at 1.8%. Dollar index is trading back above 100 handle at the time writing. BoC will announce rate decision later today and Fed will release Beige Book report. But main focus will stays on tomorrow's ECB and Friday's NFP.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0584; (P) 1.0610 (R1) 1.0658; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Further decline is still expected with 1.0688 minor resistance intact. Current fall should target a test on 1.0461 low. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and target 50% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1713 at 0.9947 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.0688 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Nov 32.50% 32.50%
00:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q3 0.90% 0.70% 0.20%
09:30 GBP UK Construction PMI Nov 55.3 58.4 58.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Oct -0.30% -0.40% -0.30% -0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct -3.10% -3.20% -3.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y NOV A 0.90% 1.10% 1.10%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Nov 217K 185k 182k 196K
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 F 2.20% 2.20% 1.60%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 F 1.80% 0.90% 1.40%
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book Report
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated in European session, bids at 1.0600 and 1.0580 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.0575, 1.0550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.0550) and 1.0525-30, buying interest is tipped at 1.0500 (another barrier), 1.0485 and 1.0465, fresh demand is located at 1.0450, 1.0425-30 and 1.0400 (stops below). On the upside, offers are seen at 1.0620-35 area, 1.0650 and 1.0665, sell orders are expected at 1.0685-1.0700 area, 1.0720-25 and 1.0745, selling interest should emerge around 1.0760, 1.0780-85 and 1.0800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold long entered at 1.5040

Cable's retreat after yesterday's rebound to 1.5126 suggests consolidation would be seen and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.4994 yesterday is correct, downside should be limited to 1.5020 and bring another rebound later, above said resistance would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5136 resistance and possibly towards 1.5156

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 122.70

Dollar's retreat from 123.34 to 122.64 suggests further consolidation would be seen but as long as said support at 122.64 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 123.34 would add credence to our view that the decline from 123.76 has ended at 122.26 last week, bring further gain to 123.50 and then retest of said resistance at 123.76.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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