Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-1-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft as Traders Turn Cautious ahead of Key Events

Dollar is generally soft except versus the Japanese yen as traders are getting cautious ahead of the key events ahead in the week. ISM manufacturing today and ISM non-manufacturing on Thursday will be closely watched but the main course is Friday's non-farm payroll. As noted before, barring any disastrous results, Fed's rate hike in December is almost a done deal and markets are looking beyond that. The upcoming data would be crucial now in determining the timing of the next hike. Euro's performance isn't too bad as ECB is widely expected to announce additional stimulus later this week. But the question now seems to be whether ECB would disappoint Euro bears and announce less aggressive than expected measures. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally strong.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5009; (P) 1.5039; (R1) 1.5084; More...

GBP/USD recovers against dollar today but stays below 1.5135 minor resistance. Further fall is still expected for the moment. The whole decline from 1.5929 should target a test on 1.4565 low on sustained trading below 1.5 handle. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, above 1.5135 will turn focus back to 1.5335 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 -3.70% -2.50% 1.30% 1.50%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q3 11.20% 2.30% 5.60%
0:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q3 -18.1B -16.6B -19.0B -20.5B
0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Oct 3.90% -2.40% 2.20% 2.30%
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Nov 49.6 49.9 49.8
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Nov 53.6 53.1
1:45 CNY Caixin PMI Manufacturing Nov 48.6 48.3 48.3
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
6:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q3 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
7:00 GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
8:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Oct -0.80% 0.40% 0.20%
8:30 CHF SVME-PMI Nov 49.7 50.8 50.7
8:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.9 54.3 54.1
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Nov -13K -4K -5k
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Nov 6.30% 6.40% 6.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F 52.8 52.8 52.8
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Nov 52.7 53.7 55.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 10.70% 10.80% 10.80%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10%
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Oct 0.60% 0.60%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Nov 50.5 50.1
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Nov 40 39
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded after falling to 1.0558 yesterday, offers at 1.0600 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.0630-35, 1.0650 and 1.0665, selling interest is tipped at 1.0685, 1.0700 and 1.0720-25, sellers are awaiting at 1.0745, 1.0760 and 1.0780-85, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.0800. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.0575-80, 1.0550-60 (stops below barrier at 1.0550) and 1.0525-30, buy orders are expected at 1.0500 (another barrier), 1.0485 and 1.0465, buying interest should emerge around 1.0450, 1.0425-30 and 1.0400. Option expires today include: 1.0500 (near 1 bln), 1.0550 and 1.0600 (2 bln).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0630

As the single currency has recovered after finding support at 1.0558 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 1.0600-05 is likely, however, reckon 1.0635-40 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support would extend recent decline to 1.0530-35 (50% projection of 1.1073-1.0617 measuring from 1.0763), then towards 1.0500 but loss of downward momentum should limit downside

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 122.70

Although the greenback retreated after rising to 123.34 yesterday, as long as the lower Kumo (now at 122.59) holds, consolidation with upside bias is seen and break of said yesterday's high would add credence to our view that the decline from 123.76 has ended at 122.26 last week, bring further gain to 123.50 and then retest of said resistance at 123.76. Looking ahead, only a break of this level would signal medium term upmove has resumed for headway to 124.00-10 first.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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