It's another week's that's full of headlines. Sterling ended as the strongest one on revised hope of a Brexit deal with the EU despite all the rhetorics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May also survived the Conservative Party conference without dance but no disaster. Dollar followed as the second strongest as boosted by strong economy data as well as strong rally in treasury yields. Friday's mixed non-farm payroll could be a disappointment but the overall economic outlook is greater than good. Yen is the third strongest one as partly supported by surging JGB yields. Also, rising global yields triggered risk aversions to towards the end of the week and helped lift the Yen. Canadian Dollar is the fourth. After initial boost by the trilateral trade deal with the US and Mexico, the USMCA, there was no follow through buying in the Loonie despite strong job data and oil price. Euro somehow avoided broad based selloff after Italy revised its budget targets to more "acceptable" ones. But's unsure how that is assessed by the EU eventually. And there are risks of downgrade ahead on Italy before the month end. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the weakest ones. They're firstly pressured by monetary policy divergence, secondly by risk aversion, in particular in Asia. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively light this week. A major focus is on how US treasury yields are going to extend the uptrend after taking out key resistance level last week. Also, US inflation data could have a hand on the momentum of yields. In turn, strength in yields might continue to pressure global equities, which even US indices tumbled towards the end of last week. And of course, China is back from holiday and could immediate face a disastrous open in its stock markets. And, it's uncertain how far Brexit optimism could take Sterling to. |
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