 Dollar recovers mildly today, continuing to stabilize from this week's selloff. The greenback is staying in range established earlier except versus Canadian. There is some optimism on the outcome of US-Mexico negotiations. Or at least, tariffs won't go up to the worst case of 25% down the road. Together with expectations on Fed rate cut, sentiments improved notably, which is clearly reflected in the rebound in the stock markets. Nevertheless, today's non-farm payroll report could be the ultimate test for investor sentiments for the near term. In the currency markets, Canadian is currently the strongest one for today, helped by mild recovery in oil prices. Sterling is the second strongest, followed by Dollar. Euro is the weakest one but it's generally bounded in range only. Aussie is the second weakest after poor housing data. For the week, Yen overtook Dollar's position as worst performing while Dollar is second, than Aussie. Kiwi is the strongest one, followed by Canadian and then Franc. Technically, USD/CAD's breach of 1.3357 support is a sign of bearish reversal. That is, rise from February low at 1.3068 has possibly completed at 1.3564 already. But of course the outlook will very much depend on today's job data from both Canada and US. As for Dollar, further decline remains in favor in general. Some near term levels are needed to be taken out, at least some of them, to confirm a turn around in the greenback. Otherwise, we won't be convinced by any knee jerk bullish reactions to NFP. Those levels include 1.1200 support in EUR/USD, 0.6938 support in AUD/USD, 1.0008 resistance in USD/CHF, 109.02 resistance in USD/JPY and 1.3430 resistance in USD/CAD. In Asia, Nikkei rose 0.58%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.38%. China and Hong Kong are on holiday. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0029 at -0.118. Overnight, DOW rose 0.71%. S&P 500 rose 0.61%. NASDAQ rose 0.53%. 10-year yield rose 0.001 to 2.092. |
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