Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-1-20

Dollar and Yen Back in Driving Seat as Risk Aversion is Coming Back

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-1-20 Dollar and Yen Back in Driving Seat as Risk Aversion is Coming Back Dollar and Yen are trading as the stronger ones today as risk aversion seems to be coming back as another quarter starts. Commodity currencies are thew weakest ones as led by Canadian Dollar for now. Private job data from the US were not as bad as expected. But just like some other data, the full impact of coronavirus pandemic is not fully reflected yet. The outlook for the global economy, including that of the origin of the pandemic China, remains grim, probably except for some industries food manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. Technically, Dollar is regaining some strength for the rebound that started yesterday. EUR/USD's break of yesterday's low is a positive sign for the greenback. But it's unsure whether Dollar would be dragged down by Yen. 106.75 support and 109.70 resistance in USD/JPY will be watched closely for hints. While it's still a bit far, EUR/JPY is accelerating down towards 116.12 low. Break there should resume larger down trend. In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -3.68%. DAX is down -3.88%. CAC is down -4.10%. German 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0283 at -0.496. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei drooped -4.50%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.19%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.57%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.65%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0104 to 0.007. Full Report Here US ADP employment dropped only -27k, but coronavirus impact not fully... Eurozone unemployment dropped to 7.3% in Feb, EU unchanged at 6.5% UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.8, business optimism slumped to a... Italy Gualtieri: 6% GDP contraction realistic, but there will be vigorous... Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 44.5, still some way off peak... China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 50.1, but sector under double... Japan Tankan large manufacturing dropped to -8, worst since 2013 Australia AiG manufacturing surged to 53.7, somewhat surprising expansion RBA Minutes: Very material contraction in economic activity across Q1, Q2... Fed Mester expects some really bad economic numbers, but it's not... Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol Chinese Government Expected to Accelerate Stimulus Despite Sharp Rebound in PMIs. CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar Remained Firm again Major... As Recovery in Stocks Lose Momentum, Could Dollar Strike Back? Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0957; (P) 1.1005; (R1) 1.1084; More... EUR/USD's from 1.1147 is extending today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Rebound from 1.0635 could have completed at 1.1147 already. Deeper fall is mildly in favor for retesting 1.0635 low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1496 to 1.0635 at 1.1167 will raise the chance of larger trend reversal and turn focus to 1.1496 key resistance. Full Report Here EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY Recommended Readings New Quarter Yet to Provide Sunshine of Hope for Global Markets Time To Pay The Rent, TOPEC+ Cuts Will Happen, Gold Resumes Safe-Haven Role, Bitcoin Looks Vulnerable Brace Yourself! EURJPY Downslide Accelerates, Eyes 117 Level USD, JPY Strengthen In The Face Of Global Slowdown USD/JPY Outlook: Negative Signal On Repeated Close Below Fibo Support/20DMA At 107.69 Dollar Firms, Stocks Dive Again As US Virus Cases Soar AUDUSD Rebound Loses Steam After Hitting Wall At 0.62 Volatility Subsides As Markets Await Next Covid-19 Development Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis In-depth Reports Australia: JobKeeper Payment to Reduce Peak Unemployment Rate from 17% to 9% COVID-19: A Black Swan or a Group of Black Swans? Chinese Government Expected to Accelerate Stimulus Despite Sharp Rebound in PMIs. The Fed Moves to Do "Whatever it Takes" New Zealand - Unprecedented Times: Revised Economic And Financial Outlook Canadian Dollar Weakened but Not Headed for Historical Lows Forecast Update: A Much Deeper Contraction Why the Fed's Currency Swaps May Not Calm the Dollar Funding Stress Economic Calendar GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index Mar 53.7 44.3 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Feb -0.80% -0.60% 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 -8 -10 0 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q1 -11 -14 0 23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index Q1 8 6 20 23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook Q1 -1 2 18 23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 1.80% -1.10% 6.80% 00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Feb 19.90% 4.50% -15.30% -15.10% 00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Mar F 44.8 44.8 44.8 01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.1 45.8 40.3 05:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR Y/Y Mar -10.20% -6.10% -6.00% 06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb 1.20% 0.00% 0.90% 07:15 EUR Spain Manufacturing PMI Mar 45.7 44 50.4 07:30 CHF SVME PMI Mar 43.7 37 49.5 07:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar F 40.3 43 48.7 07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Mar F 43.2 42.9 42.9 07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F 45.4 45.5 45.7 08:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Feb 9.70% 9.80% 9.80% 08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 44.5 44.8 44.8 08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Mar F 47.8 48 48 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 7.30% 7.40% 7.40% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar -27K -150K 183K 179K 13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Mar F 53.3 51.8 13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Mar F 49.2 49.2 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar 44.3 50.1 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Mar 41.2 45.9 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Mar 45.4 46.9 14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb 0.50% 1.80% 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.7M 16.8M

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