| Friday's Headlines 1. US markets fall for third week in four 2. US nonfarm payrolls fall by 701,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.4% 3. Money continues to flow out of stocks and bonds and into cash 4. What have you been buying? 5. What to expect next week Markets Closed
Year-to-Date
 photo: Mint Images/Getty Images
Markets Today Another sell-off to end another volatile week for U.S. and most global markets. The DJIA fell 2.7% this week while the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, and the Nasdaq ended the week down 1.7%.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors stuck with safety and hid out in government bonds and cash. Oil was, for the second day, one of the only asset classes to see meaningful gains, as expectations increase for a production cut next week.
The March nonfarm payrolls report came in worse than expected, even though it only captured the first half of the month, before layoffs intensified. 701,000 jobs were lost for that period in March, but we know the numbers are much higher given weekly jobless claims and filings for unemployment.
We are heading into the teeth of this recession and health crisis here in the U.S. It is still plenty bad in Europe and some parts of Asia, and those economies are starting to report historically weak manufacturing and industrial production numbers. That will be the pattern for a few months, if not longer. It will eventually end, and let's just hope the jobs return when they do. Headlines:
 March Unemployment Report We knew the March nonfarm payrolls report was going to deliver a shocking number, and it did. What's more shocking is that the Labor Dept's survey only captured data from employers up until the week of March 13th. As we know, the last two weeks have seen nearly 10 million new unemployment claims filed here in the U.S.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 701,000 last month, with 459,000 of those losses in leisure and hospitality, including restaurants. Unemployment spiked to 4.4%. April will be much worse, given the expectations for a continued spike in weekly claims, with some forecasts predicting as many as 6.5 million new claims for the week ending next Wednesday.
An even more shocking data point from today's report, however, was the household survey, which asks individual residents how many people are working that live in their homes. That showed a stunning drop of 2,987,000 workers for the month.
The Federal Reserve has already predicted that 43 million Americans may lose their jobs in the coming weeks as the unemployment rate tops 30%. While many think the overall economy will bounce back by the end of this year or early 2021, it may be a jobless recovery for longer than that.  Where Is the Money Flowing? Institutional investors continue to bail out of equities, commodities, and especially bonds in record numbers over the past month. According to Bank of America, a historic $284 billion came out of bonds, while $64 billion came out of stocks in March.
Where did it go? Cash, or money market funds, which are a proxy for cash. $658 billion went into money market funds in just the month of March. The average yield for U.S. government money market funds is 1.7%.  Where Have You Been Putting Your Money? Many of you responded to our recent survey about what you have been doing, if anything, with your portfolios through this crisis. We appreciate that.
As it turns out, many of you, both with investable assets of $1 million or more, or those of you with less, have been pursuing beaten down blue chip stocks lately. Many of you may have owned those stocks prior to this sell-off and are back to buy more at discount prices. Some of you are buying them for the first time, even amid this record volatility.
What's interesting is that a small but meaningful percentage of the respondents who have less than $1 million to invest have been pursuing cannabis stocks lately, namely Cronos and Aurora Cannabis. The entire cannabis sector was leveled even before the global pandemic hit, and it has fallen even more since. All stocks seem dangerous right now, but they also look tempting given the haircut they have had.
Be careful and responsible buying anything right now, and make sure you can stomach the losses. They will likely come. What to Expect Next Week Here's a look at how different asset classes have been doing:  Here's a list of economic events for the week ahead:
Monday, April 6th:
Tuesday, April 7th:
Wednesday, April 8th:
Thursday, April 9th:
Friday, April 10:
OPEC+ Meeting
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(chart courtesy YCHARTS)  Shares of oil companies are up today following an announcement that OPEC+ will be meeting on Monday to discuss production cuts. This news raised the stock prices of producers like Occidental Petroleum (nearly 19%), miners like Helmerich & Payne (nearly 15%), and field service companies like Halliburton (nearly 14%).  Shares of Live Nation Entertainment are down by almost 13% after Morgan Stanley halved the venue operator's price target due to social-distancing requirements preventing concerts from being held. Arconic's stock price fell by over 10% today after the engineering and manufacturing company announced it will be temporarily closing its Tennessee facilities on Monday due to the ongoing outbreak. Word of the Day Collectively, nonfarm payrolls are a summation of payroll jobs available within the nonfarm payrolls classification as designated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly nonfarm payrolls statistic is a measure of new payrolls added by private and government entities in the U.S. The monthly statistic is tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and reported to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed "Employment Situation" report.  image courtesy: loc.gov
Today in History April 3rd, 1948: The U.S. Congress passes (and Pres. Harry S. Truman immediately signs) the Marshall Plan to finance the reconstruction of Western Europe after the devastation of World War II—helping to keep Communism at bay and laying the groundwork for the global economic boom of the 1950s.
http://www.archives.gov/exhibit_hall/featured_documents/marshall_plan/
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Friday, April 3, 2020
Jobless Anxiety
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