Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 7-30-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Reactions to FOMC Muted, Stocks Rebounded

Reactions to the FOMC statement overnight were relatively muted. Fed sounded upbeat on the economy but left little clue on whether it will raise interest rate in September. The statement noted that the US economy has expanded "moderately". The job market continued to "improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. Also, "underutilization of labor resources has diminished". Meanwhile, risks for the outlook were "nearly balanced". FOMC members voted unanimously to keep policies unchanged. After the release, markets are still expecting a 50/50 chance of rate hike in September. Some analysts noted that markets should have priced in the first hike between September and December. And, what matters now is the timing of the second rate hike and subsequent pace of tightening. And that will remain heavily data dependent. Focus will turn to Q2 GDP from US to be released later today.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2923; (R1) 1.2986; More...

The correction from 1.3102 short term top is still in progress. Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.2127 to 1.3102 at 1.2730. At this point, we'd expect strong support around 1.2562 resistance turned support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.3102 will extend recent up trend and target next projection level at 1.3287.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jun -4.10% 0.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun P 0.80% 0.30% -2.10%
1:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 1.40% 1.50% -0.20%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -8.20% -1.00% 2.40% 2.30%
7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jul 90.3 89.7
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jul -5K -1K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jul 6.40%
8:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jul 103.2 103.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jul 0.19 0.14
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jul -3.4 -3.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jul 8 7.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul F -7.1 -7.1
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul P 0.20% -0.10%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul P 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 A 2.60% -0.20%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 A 1.50% 0.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 25) 271K 255K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 61B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after rising to 1.1130 yesterday and bids at 1.1050 were filled but buy orders are still noted at 1.1020, 1.1000 and 1.0980, buyers are reported at 1.0965 and 1.0940, buying interest is tipped at 1.0900, 1.0880 and 1.0860, fresh demand is located at 1.0820-25 and 1.0800. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.1075-85, 1.1100 and 1.1120, sell orders are expected at 1.1160, 1.1185 and 1.1200, selling interest should emerge around 1.1220 and 1.1250.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold short entered at 0.7130

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.7161 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.7050 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that low has been formed at 0.6936 earlier is correct, downside should be limited and bring another rebound later, above 0.7130-35 would bring another test of said resistance at 0.7161. Once this level is penetrated, this would add credence to our view that a temporary low has possibly been formed at 0.6936

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.2900

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.3103 late last week and consolidation below this level would be seen for minor correction to 1.2945-50, however, reckon 1.2900-10 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.3103 would signal recent wave iii is still in progress and headway to 1.3150-60, then 1.3200 would follow, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3250-60 and price should falter below 1.3300-10 today

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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